NATO countries have agreed on new plans to deter potential Russian attacks on alliance territory. The documents were adopted on Monday, in writing, the German Press Agency and Reuters learned from several diplomats, a day before the start of the summit in Lithuania. The decision will be confirmed by the heads of state and the government again this Tuesday and then officially announced.
4,000 pages of safety plans
Defense plans, totaling more than 4,000 pages, detail how critical locations in coalition territory are to be protected by containment and protected in the event of an emergency. For this purpose, which military capabilities are necessary is also defined. Apart from land, air and sea forces, cyber and space capabilities are also included. “This is a direct result of Putin’s attack on Ukraine,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said recently in Brussels of the work on the new plans. This is the first time in decades that there are new programs.
For decades, NATO did not see the need for large-scale defense programs because it did not classify Russia as an existential threat after the end of the Cold War. However, after the start of the war in Ukraine, there was pressure to revise all defense plans. However, a deal has so far been blocked by Turkey over wording on geographical objects such as Cyprus.
A double task for Germany
According to Pistorius, the plans assign Germany a double task. On the one hand, he explained, because of its geographical location, it would be a logistical hub for the transfer of troops and supplies, just as it was during the Cold War. On the other hand, responsibility for the eastern sector will be assumed, where greater deterrence and security capabilities will be provided.
Pistorius said the Baltic states are now just as exposed in the east as the old federal republic was before 1989. It is important that they too now believe that the Allies will protect their freedom and security in an emergency.
Attacks by terrorist groups are also an issue
In addition to possible attacks by Russia, threats from terrorist groups are also at the basis of the plans. The experience of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States by the al-Qaeda terrorist organization, but also the pressure from countries like Turkey, which have repeatedly faced the terrorist activities of the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party, the PKK.
The fact that NATO is now undergoing many changes is due to the shift in focus from alliance defense to crisis management after the end of the Cold War. The main objective was to be well prepared for operations in the Balkans or the Middle East.
New force structure
The projects are to be implemented with the help of the new armed forces structure. At last year’s NATO summit, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that 300,000 troops would be on standby for possible NATO deployments. Until now, the NRF intervention force was primarily aimed at rapid crisis operations in NATO. For this, member states are currently contributing around 40,000 soldiers.
Last year, Germany had already agreed to contribute one division — about 15,000 soldiers — to the new NATO troop structure. In addition, about 65 aircraft and 20 ships and support forces with special missions and other units were committed.
More deterrence by presence
In the new defense plans, units would normally be stationed in their respective countries, but would be assigned to specific countries and territories – for example in NATO’s eastern flank. If necessary, forces are shifted to their respective areas and ensure their security there. Significantly more prevention is planned through permanent presence, especially in areas at risk. That is why Germany also wants to station around 4,000 soldiers permanently in Lithuania.
The NATO region is divided into three regions
Geographically, NATO is divided into three areas for regional planning: the first extends from the United States across the Atlantic to Iceland, Great Britain, and Norway. The second covers Europe north of the Alps, including Germany, Poland, Central Eastern Europe, and the Baltic states. The third extends through the Mediterranean and Balkan regions to the Black Sea region with countries such as Romania and Bulgaria.
According to the coalition, the planning is primarily to protect against an attack on Ukraine. A number of areas where Europe now needs to do more have also been identified. According to the Army, more heavy forces, more anti-aircraft systems and long-range artillery and missile systems capable of withstanding heavy combat are needed. Investments in information and data management systems and logistics are essential.
Higher military spending is the goal
Among other things, the target for military spending is set to be raised at a summit meeting in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday to fund the targets. Two percent of economic output must now be a minimum for military spending. It may take years for NATO representatives to implement the plans.
“We realize that we may once again face an Article 5 situation in which a part of NATO territory is directly attacked,” a senior NATO official told dpa. And the war in Ukraine shows that NATO can also be a large-scale attack aimed at gaining control over a part of the territory.
💡North Atlantic Treaty, Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more persons in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all of them; Therefore, they agree that in the event of such an armed attack, each of them shall, by exercising the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, assist the party or parties attacked. […]
Selensky visits Lithuania as a guest
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also expected to be a guest at the meeting in Vilnius. The call for Ukraine to join Zelensky has not yet reached consensus in the military alliance. The United States and the federal government believe this is premature while the war continues. In a sign of rapprochement, a new NATO-Ukraine Council is to be set up, which will meet with Zelensky for the first time. In addition, more military and security responsibilities are expected from NATO countries.
Erdogan paved the way for Sweden to join NATO
Ahead of the summit, Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden joining NATO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to forward Sweden’s request to parliament. Thus Turkey has completed a U-turn. Not long ago, Erdogan put a new hurdle in Sweden’s bid for NATO membership by calling for his country to move closer to the European Union. Turkey has so far blocked Sweden’s entry into NATO because the government in Ankara believes the north is not cooperating enough in the war against Kurdish militants. On Monday, Stoltenberg made a last-ditch effort to mediate before the summit. Sweden had long been militarily neutral. After Russia attacked Ukraine, that changed and a country like Finland applied for NATO membership.
Stoltenberg did not say when the Turkish parliament would approve Sweden’s accession to NATO. Erdogan has promised to do so soon. Membership requires the approval of all NATO countries. Finland was able to join in April. However, Sweden’s request was blocked by Turkey and Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s chief of staff had already announced on Thursday that his country would no longer block access to Sweden.
Erdogan has called for the resumption of EU accession talks
Before leaving for Vilnius, Erdogan surprisingly made a new demand. Sweden resumed EU accession talks with Turkey as a condition of its acceptance of NATO membership. “First open the way for Turkey to join the EU, then we will open the way for Sweden,” Erdogan said.
Chancellor Olaf Scholes (SPD) and the EU Commission responded cautiously to the request and pointed out that the two issues are unrelated. At the end of 2016, the European Union suspended accession talks with Turkey that began in 2005. The background is the mass arrests of Turkish government critics after the failed military coup against President Erdogan in July 2016.
With information from dpa, Reuters, AFP.
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