Erdogan’s election defeat could significantly change the course of Turkey’s foreign policy. It also has consequences for strained relations with the West.
FRANKFURT – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under considerable pressure ahead of Turkey’s crucial May 14 elections. Polls indicate at least a neck-and-neck race with opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the largest opposition CHP. After 20 years in power, Erdogan may actually lose this time.
Nothing decided yet. However, one thing is already certain: if the Turkish head of state does indeed suffer defeat, the direction of Turkey’s foreign policy will change significantly. However, experts from the think tank “Carnegie Europe” are wary of this assessment.
Türkiye Election 2023: Opposition Promises Big Changes After Possible Election Victory
If one believes the statements of CHP politician and advisor to Kilicdaroglu Ünal Ceviköz, his party is aiming for a major change in Turkey. Against the American political press Politics He said in mid-March that jailed former party leader Selahattin Demirtas of the pro-Kurdish HDP and activist Osman Kavala would be released. In addition, the new Turkish government would immediately accept Sweden into NATO, making it clear to Russia that it is a NATO member. He also promised that Turkey would show the EU that it was back on the “road to democracy”.
Opposite American magazine Newsweek If Kilicdaroglu wins the election, he predicts better relations with the United States. Referring to the Turkish military’s Russian S-400 air defense systems, he stressed that a solution would be found that would satisfy the US and other NATO allies. Russian missile systems have led to a crisis between the West and Turkey. Ankara has been removed from the program to produce F35 fighter jets.
Sevikos’s words drew a lot of criticism in Turkey, especially in the government camp. Argument: The CHP wants votes from the Turkish people, but makes promises to Europe and the US. In fact, before Demirtas was released, Cevikos did not say whether they would first hold a court hearing or whether Sweden’s NATO membership would actually be in line with Turkish interests. However, if the opposition defeats Erdogan, the reality is that a major shift in foreign policy is on the horizon.
Türkiye Election 2023: Opposition Wins But Key Disagreements With Ankara
However, according to experts from the European think tank “Carnegie Europe”, Marc Pierini and Francesco Sicardi, this change will not fully extend to all aspects of foreign policy. They are determined: As they wrote in a statement last Thursday (April 13), major disagreements and conflicts of interest, such as Syria and Cyprus, will not simply disappear.
In Syria, the opposition will begin reconciliation with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, while trying to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees. However, according to experts, this creates a conflict with the Western approach to Syria, which adheres to a policy of non-engagement with Assad. Pierini and Siccardi also warn that a Turkish-Syrian default could put U.S. troops under pressure in Syria. They also insist that if Turkey goes it alone on the refugee issue, it will invalidate the refugee deal with the EU.
The Cyprus issue has been at the forefront of Turkish-European relations for decades. Even if the opposition wins, experts say it will be difficult to find a solution to the conflict. Finally, there are several aspects: the state of the Turkish population, the resources in the island’s territorial waters and the lack of Turkish recognition of the Republic of Cyprus. Additionally, many in the opposition view the Cyprus issue from a nationalist perspective. Few are willing to compromise on this issue.
Türkiye Election 2023: Opposition victory could bring big change in Turkey
Nevertheless, according to experts, the positive effects of the opposition’s victory on relations with the West outweigh the negative. Henceforth, Turkey will prevent Russia from circumventing Western sanctions. According to experts, Ankara will drop its opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership, become more involved in the alliance’s eastern flank and end the presence of Russian air defense systems on Turkish soil. Of course, Russia will fight against it and gas supplies to Ankara or not Akuyu nuclear reactor, the construction of which Moscow is involved inTo stress, explain Pierini and Siccardi.
They also see tremendous positive effects in returning the rule of law closer to Western standards. Legal and media reforms will be initiated immediately and “political prisoners” will be released. Experts stress that rapprochement with Western countries and legal relaxation will strengthen the confidence of Western investors. This would be timely given Turkey’s current difficult financial situation.
Turkey Election 2023: Anti-Erdogan Opposition Has No Clear Plan
However, Pierini and Cicardi warn in their report that, among others, disagreements in the opposition camp could prevent the implementation of these points. In fact, the six-party opposition does not seem to have a clear plan at present. With the parties united only in the goal of defeating Erdogan, agreeing on a path seems difficult. However, this will certainly not be enough for a possible post-Erdogan period. Different political orientations lead to constant tense relations in the opposition. The dispute over the right candidate has just been settled and the next uproar over the MP list has already begun. Sometimes verbal attacks also happen.
It is questionable whether they can effect a change in foreign policy in this way. Middle East expert Steven A. Cook doubts the reliability of their theses. For example, the coalition has pledged to abandon domestic political calculations and ideological approaches to foreign policy. Cook wrote about it in American magazine Foreign policy: “It’s not clear who the opposition is trying to fool, but it’s nonsense.” (bb)
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