- Written by Robert Wingfield Hayes
- BBC News, Taiwan
Demonstrators before Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit
“What do you think if we started sending official delegations to Honolulu to meet with separatist leaders who want Hawaii's independence from the United States? What would you do if we started selling them weapons?”
It may seem like a false equivalency, but this is a line of argument often deployed by China's legion of armchair warriors, who take to social media to condemn any visit to Taiwan by US government officials – especially members of the US Congress. China considers self-ruled Taiwan a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control, so for social media users such visits are an unacceptable provocation and interference in China's internal affairs.
Of course, such visits – like the one made by Rep. Mike Gallagher, chairman of the US House China Committee, this week – are viewed very differently in Washington and Taipei, which sees itself as separate from mainland China, with its own constitution and democratically elected leaders. .
But the question arises: what is their goal? Are they a genuine show of support that helps deter China – or are they propaganda acts that serve to provoke Beijing, and reinforce the view that Washington is intent on permanently separating Taiwan?
Visits are not without consequences. How the United States handles its relations with Beijing and Taipei will go a long way in determining whether the current tense stalemate across the Taiwan Strait remains intact, or worsens.
“We came here to reaffirm U.S. support for Taiwan and express solidarity in our shared commitment to democratic values,” Congressmen Ami Bera and Mario Diaz-Balart said as they concluded their trip here in January. They were the first to make the pilgrimage to Taipei after the presidential election on January 13.
President Tsai Ing-wen met with US Representatives Ami Bera (right) and Mario Diaz-Balart in January
This trend has been strongly encouraged by current Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, and the American side does not seem to have discouraged it. Indeed, President Joe Biden has been the most vocal of any American leader to date in his defense of Taiwan – albeit while remaining committed to America's one-China policy.
“It's important,” says J. Michael Cole, a former Canadian intelligence officer and former adviser to President Tsai. “The United States keeps saying we have a firm commitment to Taiwan. But you need a public element to this practice. That's what worries Beijing, that's what makes journalists write about it.”
“We have research that shows that high-level visits increase people’s confidence in the US-Taiwan relationship,” says Chen Fangyu, a political science professor at Soochow University in Taipei.
Such visits, he explains, foster a friendlier attitude toward America on the part of those who remain skeptical about whether the United States would actually attend if Taiwan was attacked by China. However, there are others here who have imbibed conspiracy theories, many of which originate across the Taiwan Strait, that say America is pushing Taipei onto a path to war with China, just as conspiracy theorists say it did with Ukraine's war with Russia.
Meanwhile, American congressmen and women have their own reasons, not always selfless, for coming here. Pilgrimages to Taipei have increasingly become a way for those on the right to burnish their anti-China credentials to voters back home – although these days the left seems keen to prove its hard-line stances when it comes to Beijing.
Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan: Democracy is a source of strength
The increasing repetition and unabashed propaganda show how much has changed between Washington and Beijing.
“Before 2016, people thought visits here should be simple,” says Chen Fangyu. “They wanted to avoid angering China. But now more and more people realize that no matter what they do, they will anger China.”
Taiwan's relationship with the US Congress is deep and long-standing. When President Jimmy Carter broke ties with Taipei in 1979 and recognized Beijing, it was the US Congress that forced him to sign the Taiwan Relations Act. This act is what supports the relationship with Taipei to this day. It explicitly commits the United States to forcefully oppose any attempt to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, and to provide Taiwan with sufficient weapons to defend itself against China.
In the 1970s, Taiwan was a military dictatorship. Its allies in the United States were Republicans. The Cold War was still very cold, and the islands were seen as a bulwark against communism. Today, anti-communism may still play a small role. But what is even more important is solidarity with a fellow democracy. Taiwan is no longer the Republican Party's issue. In the wake of things like Trump's trade wars, the controversy over the origins of Covid, and the detection of spy balloons in the US, support for Taiwan among Americans is now spreading across both parties.
In addition, the United States also has major national security and economic interests tied to Taiwan – especially semiconductor trade.
All of this means that, unlike what happened in Ukraine, there are no voices in Congress demanding that the United States cut off its military support for Taiwan. If anything, it's the opposite.
Reaction to Pelosi's visit in Chinese media
But this question remains. Do visits do more harm than good? When Nancy Pelosi came here in the summer of 2022, Beijing responded by launching ballistic missiles over the top of the island for the first time, including over the capital, Taipei. Opinion polls conducted after the visit showed that the majority here believed that the visit harmed Taiwan's security.
It is all too common these days to hear those specializing in Taiwan studies quote President Theodore Roosevelt's old adage, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” J. Michael Cole says this is exactly what the United States and Taiwan are doing. He says the US Congressional visits may be symbolic, but they represent good public relations for Taipei and for members of Congress. With the exception of Pelosi's visit, these matters also fall below the threshold of what really bothers Beijing.
But, as J. Michael Cole says, what do these visits really mean for US-Taiwan relations? After all, “the really substantive aspect…like increased high-level exchanges on things like intelligence, like defense, doesn't make the news.”
“It's constructive,” he continues. “The United States is determined that this information not be published by the Taiwanese government.”
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