Ukraine is destroying tank after tank – always setting new record numbers, but Russia is tough. Experts believe that the country can rebuild at a faster pace.
Avtivka – Andrew Perpetua stuns – App X (Before Twitter) He writes: “These are the losses today: 100 pieces. The largest amount I have counted in one day.” Analyst Perpetua, who compiles vehicle losses on both sides of the Ukraine war and publishes daily lists of them on his channel, was struck by a shockingly high number on Saturday (February 3).
Subsequently, Russia lost at least 54 vehicles that day. Another 16 were damaged. Ukrainian losses were apparently light: nine vehicles were destroyed, abandoned or captured, and 21 were damaged. Forbes This leads one to say: “This Saturday was one of the worst days of the war for Moscow.”
Forbes Going further: “The clock is ticking. The Kremlin will run out of combat vehicles in six months.
A few days ago, Vladimir Putin's troops lost an entire column at noon. The footage released on social media shows this Ukrainian drone attack on Russian armored vehicle – All vehicles are said to be destroyed; including three main battle tanks, one armored personnel carrier and seven armored vehicles. They march in the afternoon without any escort or infantry support or air surveillance. Information from your destination should be according to you Build Encircling the contested city of Novomysajlivka to the south, it may have advanced to the strategically important route to Wuhleder. The goal of Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized Infantry Regiment was obvious.
Russia is brave about losses – what is broken simply remains
Russia can no longer fully exploit everything – Ukraine is destroying things faster than Putin. However, losses are priced in Russia's military tactics: Russians always think of people and objects as a group and pay little attention to the individual person or individual vehicle; However, some of the recorded vehicle losses were only temporary from the battle: “The Russians assumed that sooner or later they would advance anyway; in this regard, groups of victorious tanks simply withdrew and returned to the next location. Leaving the wreckage in the knowledge that someone would take care of it,” says Ralf Roths, historian in Munster. Director of the German Tank Museum in
In the first two years of the war, the Russians lost, according to analysts Oryx About 80 armored personnel carriers per month. If this rate of loss continues this year, while production of new armored personnel carriers remains stable at 30 to 40 per month, the Kremlin predicts that it will run out of combat vehicles in about two years. Forbes. Maybe 2026. If Russia loses more vehicles to Ukraine the situation will become dangerous – perhaps at a faster pace than before. According to Perpetua's tally on Sunday, they lost 13 tracked IFVs in another single day – and additional wheeled IFVs.
Russia will reach the end of its technological prowess sooner than expected
Journalist David Ochs rubs his eyes: “That represents a monthly loss rate of nearly 400 armored personnel carriers. So that's five times the rate we've seen in previous years. Unless things change in Putin's favor, Russia will not be able to supply vehicles for another two years of war.
German sources divide the list of lost Russian military equipment into four categories: “destroyed,” “damaged,” “abandoned,” and “captured”; 1,776 vehicles were destroyed, 644 were damaged, 723 were abandoned and 2,933 units were captured intact by the enemy; Total combat power loss of 14,265 units – Oryx's figures agree with this, other sources are actually more basic.
The numbers are determined on the basis of the estimated satellite images – and they are apparently proof of the correct tactics of Ukraine, even if the expected success of the counterattack has not yet materialized. Using Avtivka as an example, German political scientist Carlo Masala explains Hamburger Abendblatt, Ukraine decided to hold Avdiivka as long as possible, so that Putin's troops would bleed as much as possible. Masala expects a “tactical withdrawal” from the city every hour. However, the Russians continue to fight without giving much tactical importance to the city – which stands as a symbol of a mutual test of strength.
Silver lining for Ukraine: Land loss is minimal
Even better news for friends of a free Ukraine, according to media reports, is how much land the Ukrainians will lose if the Russian offensive units are destroyed: very little. In the fiercest days of the war, the Russians advanced a hundred meters in the south and about 1,000 meters in the north in the most violent area – around Avdiivka. However, reports of the shortfall of Russian capabilities do surface from time to time. For example, he had Daily Mirror In mid-August last year, it was suspected that Russia would soon be fighting its last cartridge – but that was not true.
According to pictures available at the time, Russia must have taken hundreds of old Soviet tanks from a military depot in Siberia. Five months before the start of the Russian war of aggression, some 3,840 tanks and vehicles of the Soviet Union were still stored in a depot near the city of Ulan-Ude – an area of more than ten square kilometers. Moscow Times had said. The site is expected to open in November 2022 Only about 2,600 military vehicles remained. Satellite images taken from the mapping platform Google Maps Shows large gaps between used equipment. It is not clear whether the vehicles were sent to the front or donated spare parts.
After the first year of the war, Vladimir Putin's forces are still estimated to have more than 12,000 battle tanks, a number NATO clearly exceeds in modern vehicles. Given current developments, there can be little doubt to what extent Russia will be able to regain its military footing in the near future; Ukraine has been completely independent since the end of the war.
However, NATO chief Christopher Cavalli vows to himself that after the end of the war and a pause in reconstruction, Russia will re-emerge stronger than ever in Europe. Hamburger Abendblatt Quoted: Within five years of the war's end, an aggressive Russia had not only brought its army up to date, but expanded it into a larger and more capable armed force. This includes a modernization program with new technologies that the West should worry about – “from the Avangard, a hypersonic glide weapon that can deliver nuclear bombs to their targets at speeds many times the speed of sound and in unpredictable trajectories, to nuclear-powered submarines. Drone Poseidon, which can trigger radioactive tsunamis. However, Cavoli left out the topic of tanks. The largest possible tank formations of the Cold War may have been overtaken by current combat mechanics.
Forbes However, the current war only assesses the situation and, as David Ochs writes, is encouraged to see a silver lining on the horizon: he thinks there is still a spark of reason on the part of the Russian general staff: “There is no rational and moral commander. Many armored vehicles and hundreds of soldiers will be exchanged for a few hundred meters of terrain gain. .
However, blogger Peredua cannot find any reason for this hope in his schedule – except for a particularly favorable day for Ukraine. Russia can go further. Facts speak. (Carsten Hinzmann)
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