Pollsters’ conclusion: 73 percent of Russians still support the war

Results of pollsters
73 percent of Russians continue to support the war

October 21, 2023, 10:52 am

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Free expression of opinion is impossible in Russia. The latest independent polling firm continues to travel the country, finding even stronger support for Putin’s war of aggression in their polls. One discovery shocked even the researchers.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is not just Vladimir Putin’s war. This insight owes much to the work of Lev Gutkov, scientific director of Levada, Russia’s only independent polling agency. Since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, Gutkov’s roughly 1,000 employees have been canvassing the giant country’s homes — and asking people this question: “Do you personally support the actions of the Russian armed forces? Ukraine or not?” The result is quite impressive: after nearly 20 months of brutal fighting and heavy losses among their own ranks, 73 percent of Russians still answer “yes.”

The background to this response is more complicated: Many people may have in mind that openly rejecting “military special operations,” as the war is officially called in Russia, is punishable. Additionally, many Russians feel that supporting their soldiers is a patriotic duty.

It’s a sunny day in central Moscow. Outside, passers-by stroll along Nikolskaya Street, which is decorated with flower arches; Inside, Gutkov sits in his office in a shirt and jacket. There are many work tables, a wall of books and pictures of sailing ships. Gutkov speaks slowly and deliberately. Gets up every now and then and gets a printout of the latest survey results. “Not that I’m saying anything wrong,” he says.

At 76, Gutkov may be long retired — but Levada is his life’s work. In 2003, Gutkov co-founded the center with the now-deceased sociologist Yuri Levada. At the time, both turned their backs on Wziom, the Russian state polling company, in protest against the Kremlin’s increasing job control. Today, exactly 20 years later, Wziom has long been criticized by independent experts. Levada, on the other hand, also enjoys great international recognition.

Many Russians are afraid or have no idea

Of course there is criticism though. In a country like Russia, where severe prison sentences are threatened for “discrediting” one’s own military, independent opinion polls are nearly impossible, some say. Many Russians are afraid to answer honestly, said sociologist Grigory Yudin, one of Levada’s fiercest critics, in an interview with The Insider portal. Additionally, there are many people who have distanced themselves so much from political events that they no longer have an opinion. All these distort the statistics. Nevertheless, the work of the Levada Center is appreciated by many. Because it provides some insight into the mindset of a society that increasingly seems to be turning into a kind of black box, given the lack of freedom of expression and massive repression.

Over the past few months, Gutko and his colleagues have gained a variety of insights. For example, many Russians do not really want war, but believe that it is inevitable. As a rule, more than 70 percent of those surveyed say they support Russia’s actions in Ukraine. At the same time, in the same survey, about 50 percent were in favor of immediate peace talks. In addition, many report feeling despair, fear, and depression at the thought of war. “That means the system of doublethink is being reproduced here,” Gutkov says. “There are different levels. One is the individual experiencing himself. The other is the collective vision.”

The latter, the scientist explains, is strongly influenced by imperial ideas and state propaganda in Putin’s Russia. Gutkov says the propaganda stories are familiar to many Russians from the Soviet era. For example, there is always talk on TV that there is a threat to Russia or that the enemy is in the West. “People have been absorbing this since school age. It doesn’t need any proof.” The sociologist explains that anyone who goes against these supposed truths soon feels like an outsider. “The thought of being ostracized from society scares people.” Ultimately, Gutkov concludes, many Russians support a war against Ukraine primarily out of fear of losing a collective identity.

Putin’s power shakes only in clear defeat

Gutkov’s other central thesis is that Kremlin leader Putin’s power will only loosen if Russian troops suffer an irreparable defeat in Ukraine. When he asked his compatriots in the late 1990s — shortly before the resignation of Russia’s first president, Boris Yeltsin — what they expected from their next head of state, the answer was clear, Gutkov recalls: What was needed at the time was a way. From the economic crisis – and Russia should again play an important role in the world. “This idea that Russia is a big state serves as a kind of compensation for the feeling that the country is poor, backward, underdeveloped and bankrupt,” Gutkov says. “Putin’s power rests primarily on the fact that he has built a powerful military machine.”

Gutkov appears relaxed when speaking, almost a bit resigned at times. Sometimes he laughs briefly as he tells the story, but is immediately serious again. “The situation is very difficult and it will get worse, because it is very clear that repressive politics is increasing,” he says, referring to the work of his center, which was branded a “foreign agent” by Russia’s judiciary in 2016. Due to this stigma one has to fight for orders. In addition, he is watching very closely to arrest more and more critical minds around him, Gutkov says. However, he was not afraid.

Are there any survey results that have shocked him since the start of the war? Rarely, Gutkov answers – with one exception: Russians’ responses to the question of whether they feel personal responsibility for the attacks on Ukraine. “Only ten percent answered yes,” he says. “Most people don’t even understand the question.”