- Leaked German military documents outlined a scenario in which Russia would enter into a war with NATO.
- It envisions Russia winning in Ukraine and then seeking to seize territory in the Baltic region.
- Militaries often produce such internal documents to help plan for worst-case scenarios.
Leaked German military documents describe a scary scenario in which Russia wins in Ukraine and then goes to war with NATO.
The documents were secret I got it Bild, German tabloid newspaper. (Both Bild and Business Insider share a parent company – Axel Springer.)
The documents, released by the German Defense Ministry, envision a situation in which Russia launches a massive attack in the spring of 2024 to take advantage of declining Western support.
In this scenario, it defeats Ukraine.
The documents are not a forecast, but part of the worst-case scenario planning that is a common exercise within militaries. A German official described this scenario as “absolutely unlikely.”
The German documents imagined Russia turning its sights toward NATO members in Eastern Europe, seeking to destabilize its enemies through cyberattacks and inciting internal chaos in the Baltic states such as Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.
He envisions Russia making a series of escalations, then moving troops and weapons closer to the Baltics, via its ally Belarus and also using Kaliningrad, Russia's small, breakaway region surrounded by NATO countries and the Baltic Sea.
The ultimate goal will be to transfer Russian forces to the Suwalki Gap, according to Bild's report on the documents.
The Gap is a 62-mile stretch of territory that separates Kaliningrad and Belarus.
It has long been considered a weak point in NATO's east. If Russia occupied it, it would isolate the Baltic states from other parts of Europe.
Under the scenario obtained by Bild, NATO would fight Russia to prevent it from occupying the breach. (NATO membership obligates countries to defend each other if attacked.)
It is envisioned that the confrontation will reach its peak in early 2025, as Russia seeks to take advantage of the unrest that may follow a new US administration taking power after the 2024 presidential elections.
A German Defense Ministry spokesman told Bild newspaper that “considering different scenarios, even if they are very unlikely, is part of daily military business, especially training.”
the Institute for the Study of War, an American research center, He pointed out that such documents are normal in military planning. She said the proposed timeline was unlikely.
But she warned that without continued Western support, Russia could reach the borders of NATO countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials have long threatened NATO over its support for Ukraine.
But in December, Putin denied US President Joe Biden's claims that Russia might go to war with NATO, describing them as “complete nonsense.” European leaders and officials have long raised the alarm about renewed Russian aggression in other parts of Europe if it wins in Ukraine.
Polish Minister of Security Jacek Siwira warned In December, the attack was predicted to occur in less than three years, and would likely target NATO's eastern flank.
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