Bad news for those who struggle with anxiety, become overly competitive, or simply suffocate under pressure: new research suggests that you may have to stay at home on Earth while other, more relaxed and “acceptable” species colonize Mars.
The new study, which is still being peer-reviewed, ran computer simulations to track the progress of human settlement on the Red Planet during its hypothetical first 28 years of operation.
The researchers found that “acceptable personality types were rated as the most durable in the long term,” across all four personality types used in their simulations, “whereas neurotic people showed the least adaptability.”
The researchers also discovered that the minimum number of settlers needed to successfully operate a human colony on Mars was much lower than previously expected: just 22 people.
“Contrary to other literature,” they wrote of their simulated Martian colonies, “the minimum number of people of all sorts of personalities who could lead to a sustainable settlement is dozens, not hundreds.”
The study authors, all computational sociologists at George Mason University, input data from a variety of relevant scenarios to better inform their computer model: economics research and agricultural data; a review of resource storage and production capabilities on the International Space Station (ISS); Data collected from Antarctic research centers, submarine crews, and more.
“Creating a human settlement on Mars is a very complex engineering problem,” the researchers said in their draft, posted on the “Instagram” website. arXiv for review.
“Along with technical and engineering challenges, future colonists will also face psychological and human behavioral challenges,” they wrote.
Our goal is to better understand the behavioral and psychological interactions of future Martian colonists through Agent-based modeling (simulated anti-ballistic missile) approach.
A combination of other computer simulation concepts including game theory and “evolutionary programming” used to study biological systems, agent-based simulations have divided “free agent” virtual humans into four Basic personality types.
Their model defined an “acceptable” type as an individual who is “low competitive, low aggressive, and not fixated on strict routines.”
The “social” type was defined as “individuals who are moderately competitive, outgoing, and need social interaction, but who are not focused on rigid routines.”
By contrast, the so-called “reactive” personality has a moderate degree of competitiveness and an fixation on following their own strict routines.
The fourth and final group of the model, the “neurotics,” had “a high degree of competitiveness, highly aggressive personality characteristics, and an ability to adapt to boredom or a change in routine” — making them the least adaptable to sudden challenges they might face. Come up with maintaining a colony on Mars.
The George Mason researchers put a generous set of assumptions on their model, including routine supply shipments from the ground and a nuclear generator capable of providing steady electricity to the settlement for at least seven years.
Their Mars colony “simulator” is given the task of extracting precious minerals for shipment back to Earth.
“The main focus is on the personality types of the selected colonists and how they will perform throughout their time on Mars, using their mineral extraction skills and reacting to random resupply shuttle accidents or habitat disasters,” they wrote.
After running the “MARS-COLONY agent-based model” five times for 28 simulated years each, and changing the size of the colony’s population from 10 to 170 settlers between rounds, they found that the rule could run for decades with just 22 residents.
During most simulations, the researchers found that their settlement could typically bounce back as long as its total population remained at 10 or more colonists between tragedies and setbacks.
This proved not to be true for instances where the colony was unable to bounce back on its own, between supply-from-land missions that set its simulation to once every 1.5 years.
They noted that “the inhospitable nature of the Martian environment requires that any habitat be largely self-sufficient”. “The stress from accidents, as well as from interaction with other colonists, takes its toll.”
For sociologists George Mason, simulations show that “success in extreme environments” can broadly be attributed to “adaptability”—that is, how people go with the flow during adversity, adapt to unexpected changes, and improvise amidst difficulties. adverse conditions or disasters.
In future simulations, the researchers plan to experiment with the ratio of personality types among the colonists at each Martian base.
Their hope is to see if the team made up of totally laid back “acceptables” can really outsmart the mixed groups made up of all kinds from their past experiences.
“Devoted student. Bacon advocate. Beer scholar. Troublemaker. Falls down a lot. Typical coffee enthusiast.”