China misses fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes publishing youth unemployment data

GDP growth for the full year reached 5.2%.

“With the decline in investment in the real estate sector, the economy has become more dependent on the manufacturing sector and the service sector,” Qiu Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.

“This transformation will take some time to complete. The main question in the market is when the transformation in the real estate sector will end.”

Excluding people still in school, the unemployment rate among youth between the ages of 16 and 24 was 14.9%, while the urban rate in December was 5.1%.

The office had temporarily suspended publishing the unemployment rate among the younger age group in the summer, citing the need to re-evaluate calculation methods. The unemployment rate had previously risen to record levels above 20%.

Retail sales rose 7.4% in December from a year ago, missing expectations for 8% growth.

Industrial production rose 6.8% in December from a year earlier, beating expectations for 6.6% growth.

Investment in fixed assets for 2023 rose by 3%, slightly more than the expected increase of 2.9%.

Within investment in fixed assets, real estate fell by 9.6% in 2023. Investment in infrastructure rose by 5.9% while investment in manufacturing grew by 6.5%.

Online retail sales of physical goods rose 8.4%, accounting for nearly 28% of total retail sales.

The Census Bureau also said retail sales in services rose 20% in 2023 compared to last year.

December retail sales saw a 29% rise in jewelry and a 26% increase in clothing and shoe purchases.

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Sales of daily necessities, medicines, cultural and office products, as well as construction-related materials fell in December.

China abruptly ended its COVID-19 controls in December 2022, and people rushed to buy the drug amid the outbreak that month.

China's population shrank by more than two million people to 1.41 billion in 2023 compared to the previous year, the statistics bureau said. The population decreased by 850,000 people in 2022 compared to 2021.

“We must effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and mitigate risks, improve social prospects, consolidate and enhance the sound momentum of economic recovery and growth, in an effort to effectively raise the quality level and appropriately expand the size of the national economy.” He said.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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