A war with Israel would have dire consequences for Iran

Iran is awaiting Israel's response to the weekend airstrikes. Supreme Leader Khamenei probably wants to avoid war because it would endanger the regime.

TEHRAN – The impact was big and small. For the first time, Iran directly attacked Israel on Saturday evening (April 13), creating a major war in the Middle East. More than 500 drones, rockets and cruise missiles were reportedly fired at Israel – but very few hit their targets. According to the Israeli military, Israel and its allies intercepted 99 percent of the missiles.

The feared Israeli backlash could embarrass Supreme Leader Ari Khamenei, the most powerful man in the state, just before his 85th birthday this week. Experts suspect that a war with Israel could have dire consequences for the Islamic Republic — even jeopardizing the state's survival.

Experts See “Deep Legitimacy Crisis” in Iran – Is War Ruining Religious Leader's Life's Work?

So says Ali Fathollah-Nejad, founding director of the Berlin think tank Center for the Middle East and Global Order (CMEG). Daily Mirror. The regime is experiencing a “deep crisis of legitimacy,” the newspaper quoted a Middle East expert as saying. Khamenei risks destroying his life's work.

Hostilities between Iran and Israel, which have been waged verbally or through proxies for decades, threaten to escalate at a time when the mullahs' rule appears to have lost popular support. Most Iranians no longer identify with the authoritarian state leadership and its moral police, which enforce strict compliance with the Islamic dress code and severely punish violations.

Peaceful protest in everyday life: According to a survey, the majority of Iranians reject the repressive regime.

For several months beginning in the fall of 2022, countless Iranians took to the streets every day to protest against the repressive regime, its Islamic system of governance, and above all, the oppression of women in Iran. The government reacted strongly. Tens of thousands of people are imprisoned, and human rights organizations talk of more than 700 executions in 2023 alone.

The demonstrations have now subsided, but peaceful protest continues in everyday life. Despite all the reprisals and punishments, many women continue to refuse to wear the headscarf. Daily news At the beginning of the year and described the mood in simple terms: lethargy with little hope for any future improvement. It's hard to say how big the rejection of the regime is: in December 2022, 81 percent of people in Iran spoke against the Islamic Republic, according to an online survey by the Dutch research firm Gaman.

According to the expert, Iran is in a period of critical transition – the classic dilemma of Khamenei's succession

The future of the governing body is debated in the country, but not always publicly communicated dpa These days. Insiders now see Khamenei pushed into a corner. During protests a year and a half ago, people chanted “death to dictatorship,” and a historically low 41 percent of eligible voters voted in last month's parliamentary election. Instead, the already very powerful Revolutionary Guards, ideological elite forces, could concentrate power on themselves – a new religious leader could play only a symbolic role.

Azadeh Jamirirad, a political scientist at the Science and Politics Foundation, sees the country as being in a period of critical transition, as he told the agency. “Such phases can quickly be accompanied by instability. Here the risk of serious power struggles, coup attempts, or coups d'état increases. If a ruler is appointed, he may lose power and influence during his tenure. If he does not appoint anyone, more serious conflicts may arise, as each group seeks power. Still believe it will take.

He wrote that there was no clear successor The New Zurich Times In November 2023, the religious leader is in frail health – if he dies, there is a risk of an open succession dispute or a dangerous power vacuum. People can take advantage of this power vacuum. Even if internal opposition cannot shake the regime, it can be a threat to it.

Iran is not really interested in a major war with Israel

A military conflict with Israel would be difficult for Khamenei. “The Iranian leadership really has no interest in being dragged into a major regional conflict,” Middle East expert Andreas Bohm from the University of St. Gallen confirmed in a recent interview with fr.de from IPPEN.MEDIA. During the night from Saturday to Sunday, the projectiles were mostly symbolic in nature. After Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Tehran had to react, but did not want to give Israel an excuse to retaliate massively.

It's unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's response will be. US and European leaders have called on Israel to show restraint, according to a statement Daily news Speculation on Wednesday (April 17) that Israel could strike again in the high-tech sector: with cyber attacks on infrastructure such as nuclear facilities.

Expert: “Iran took more risk than usual by attacking Israel”

Israel has done this several times in recent years, he writes Daily Mirror. The Israelis sent computer viruses into secret Iranian networks and deliberately killed nuclear scientists. In 2018, Israeli agents even stole explosive documents on the nuclear program from a secret archive. Intelligence agents and fighter jets have often demonstrated that they can cross Iranian defense lines almost at will. Had Israel succeeded in making Iran look weak again, Khamenei, who had been head of state for 35 years, would have gambled.

Political scientist Jamirat told the newspaper that the revolutionary leader was in danger of overdoing himself after mass protests and severe economic sanctions. “By attacking Israel, Iran has taken a significantly higher risk than usual, which means the Islamic Republic has a lot to lose,” Tagesspiegel quoted the expert as saying. “In terms of foreign policy, Iran is really on the rise. You're closer to the cliff now than ever before.

If Khamenei's time as revolutionary leader ends, he will leave behind a “repressive state without the support of the people” with massive environmental and economic problems. And a country on the brink of a war that could affect the entire region. (Flon)