Georgia faces a fateful choice: If a ruling party close to Putin wins, things could quickly go downhill. But there is hope ahead of Election Day.
Tbilisi/Frankfurt – The term “fixed election” is apt: everything will be at stake when Georgia elects a new parliament on Saturday (October 26). The ruling “Georgian Dream” party wants to bring the country back into Russia’s orbit — and is actively shaking up civil rights and democracy. Even their election campaign using resources from Vladimir Putin’s toolbox may seem strange from a Western perspective. The opposition wants to pull the emergency brake. Then the turn: full speed ahead in the EU.
If you believe the polls, the chances of a power change aren’t really that bad. But Stephen Malerius, head of the office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) in Tbilisi, said uncertainties abound. IPPEN.MEDIA explained. Election rigging, manipulation of election results, “buying” of MPs, homogenous opposition camp – Georgia could be in for turbulent and decisive weeks. Although opposition politician Zurab Chiaberashvili sounded confident when asked.
Georgia worried ahead of election: country could “move towards dictatorship”
Basically, Malarius sees a changing mood in the country: “People are fed up with the ruling party, which is corrupt and favors nepotism,” he says. Neither did the calculated propaganda message from the “Georgian Dream” surrounding billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili: a warning of a (new) war with Russia. This may have had an early effect – as in Moldova. “But I think we now understand that there are no signs of Russia interfering here,” the expert says. Depending on the outcome of the election, a backlash is possible.
Paradoxically, the government is promoting EU accession – with added “dignity”. But Malarius says no one in Georgia has accepted this balancing act for the party. Their apparent pro-Russian tendencies, including a Kremlin-style “agent law” and an anti-LGBTQ law, have so far thwarted the accession process. Recently there were huge protests in Tbilisi with EU flags.
One more move by the government could finally close the road to Brussels, but above all could permanently damage Georgia’s democracy. As the ruling party’s informal, undisputed strongman, Ivanishvili announced after the election that he would ban the opposition and bring them to justice – even with a direct reference to the “Nuremberg trials”. The crimes of the German Nazi regime were once dealt with in them. If the government wins, Malerius says, “the country will move toward autocracy.” They did it with incredible speed, for example the “Agents Act”: “What took Vladimir Putin years, they did in two months. If things continue in this direction, I can’t imagine what the country will look like in a year.
Is Putin’s Billionaire “Buying” Parliamentary Majority in Georgia?
There is hope that things will turn out differently. Most opinion polls put all four opposition constituencies above 50 percent. They want to work together after the elections. Malarius reports from discussions in Tbilisi that some parties are “very confident” of their victory. But there is concern in the country about manipulation: pressure and intimidation are taking place before election day, and “vote buying and carousel voting” – meaning multiple voting – may be included. This will reduce the lead of the opposition parties. “But it will be very difficult to do this on a large enough scale for them to stay in power,” says Tsiaperashvili, who is in charge of international affairs at the center-right United National Movement party. IPPEN.MEDIA.
Even if the opposition gets a narrow majority, a change of power is not certain. In this way, says Malarius, the billionaire Ivanishvili can decide to “buy” the required number of MPs. As a strong individual force, the Georgian Dream would have the formal mandate to form a government anyway.
What if the government simply announces the election result of its choice? “I heard this over and over again from opposition politicians – they said, ‘We will not let our victory be stolen from us and then we will take to the streets,'” reports the KAS office manager. The government simply “sat out” protests against the Agents Act. The opposition’s last hope is mediation by the EU or Germany. After the tumultuous elections in 2021, the EU tried to smooth things over.
Georgia’s choice of fate: Putin’s man in Tbilisi ‘doesn’t want to go’ – Russia whispers of ‘revolution’
Ivanishvili already made it clear in an agenda speech at the end of April: unlike Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, unlike Eduard Shevardnadze, the former head of government after electoral fraud and the “Rose Revolution” of 2003, he “will not go away”. In 2014. Malarius reports that voices equating the opposition victory in Georgia with a “color revolution” have already come from Russia.
However, neither Malerius nor Chiaberashvili believed that Georgia’s military would act against its own people if it escalated. “Georgia is not Venezuela or Belarus,” says Chiaperashvili. “Unlike in Ukraine, you don’t have to assume that the security forces are going to crack down on mass demonstrations,” Malarius explains. However, it cannot be completely ruled out that Ivanishvili is using his warm connection to Moscow.
What can Russia do in Georgia? No invasion – but perhaps “destabilization”
“An invasion similar to Ukraine in 2014 should not be expected,” Malarius clarifies. Military observers did not find Russian troop reinforcements in the occupied Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Disruptive maneuvers are unlikely, but conceivable: Georgia’s main traffic artery between the capital Tbilisi and the Black Sea metropolis of Batumi, for example, runs a few hundred meters from the border line to South Ossetia. A siege is relatively easy to accomplish.
Chiaperashvili acknowledged that there is “always a risk” given Russia’s military presence. But he sees an opportunity now for Georgia in the war in Ukraine. Considering the loss of people and material, Russia “could create conflict in another country,” he says. “That is why we have the opportunity to make Georgia a safe and strong state – says former mayor of Tbilisi and former minister of health: Florian Naumann)
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