A new wave of recruitment is pending, but it is fraught with complications. The public is not exactly enthusiastic about the Kremlin’s militarization plans.
Igor had sent a summons to the War Commission last fall, but since then there has been no draft notice. “I felt stupid, many of my acquaintances had already emigrated, so I wanted to volunteer,” says the Volgograd reserve car mechanic and private. “But they didn’t take me, they said they wanted officers now, not soldiers.”
Igor may soon be allowed to visit Ukraine. Voices predicting a new wave of mobilization are rising in Russia, but also in Western media. The Kremlin denies it. But at the same time he confirms that the mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin in September is still in place. So there may be more meetings without major announcements.
On Tuesday, the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) did not rule out that Putin could announce a new regional mobilization in the coming days. The first date put up for discussion by the ISW – yesterday’s anniversary of the partial lifting of the Leningrad blockade in St Petersburg – was passed by Russia’s strongest man. However, earlier in the day, Chechen regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on “all men of the Chechen Republic, the Caucasus regions, Russia and the world community” to prepare for the continuation of mobilization in his usual speech on Instagram.
Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported on the Kremlin’s non-public opinion poll. According to it, popular support for “war special operations” fell to 34 percent after the mobilization began in September, but quickly rebounded to 80 percent after it ended in October. A former Kremlin official told FR that the Russians were prepared to withstand a second wave of mobilization. The verstka.media portal, quoting a source close to the Kremlin, says the wave could begin soon, perhaps in winter.
Troops and weapons are missing
As the Internet newspaper “fontanka.ru” reported, public servants in December lifted the ban on conscription for fathers with more than two children under 16. According to Radio Svoboda, about a dozen people living in the Krasnodar Territory received summonses to the War Commission in the second half of January.
The Russian government has made no secret that it needs more soldiers. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Tuesday that the armed forces will be increased from 150,000 to 500,000 by 2026.
Shoigu wants to restore the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, establish a new army corps in Karelia, as well as “autonomous” military groups and 12 new divisions in the occupied Ukrainian territories. Special attention should be paid to the recruitment of regular players. Their target strength is to be raised to nearly 700,000 from 400,000 by February 2022.
However, new units must first have barracks built, weapons and equipment produced and training made possible. Mobilization in the fall already showed that all this was lacking. It is now doubtful whether the armed forces can withstand a second major wave of mobilization. “There will be additional excavations,” explains civil rights activist Pavel Chikov. “But the numbers won’t go into the hundreds of thousands. And it won’t be announced out loud.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced yesterday that the US is mobilizing Europe against Russia like Napoleon and Hitler. Moscow is trying to mobilize images of enemies by all means. (Stephen Scholl)
. “Amateur alcohol specialist. Reader. Hardcore introvert. Freelance explorer.”