CNN
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The US intelligence community currently believes that Iran and its proxies are calibrating their response to the Israeli military intervention in Gaza to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the United States while continuing to inflict heavy costs on their adversaries.
But the United States is also fully aware that Iran does not maintain complete control over its umbrella of proxies – especially over Lebanese Hezbollah, which is the largest and most capable of the various groups. Hezbollah is an ally of Hamas, the group that attacked Israel on October 7, and has long presented itself as fighting against Israel. US officials are deeply concerned that the party’s internal politics may push Hezbollah to escalate rising tensions.
The United States also does not always have a perfect view of communications between Iran and its various proxies, according to sources familiar with US intelligence in the region.
“The problem is that the proxies do not have equal respect for Tehran, so lumping them together is a mistake,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence analyst specializing in the region. “The question is, if Hamas really looks like it’s in trouble, will Hezbollah and Iran agree that Hezbollah will launch a large-scale attack to save Hamas or will they disagree — and I don’t think we know that yet.”
A US official, who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity, said Tehran knows that if Hezbollah escalates the conflict with Israel or the United States, it will likely provoke direct counterattacks against Iran that could be devastating to it. The kind of lower-level attacks launched by various proxy groups against Israel and the United States since October 7 have prompted the United States to deploy significant military assets, forced Israel to deploy its forces and munitions, and allowed Iran to be seen as “doing so.” “Something” about the killing of Palestinians in Gaza, this person said — all while avoiding direct conflict.
US officials believe it is a coordinated strategy. The Iranian military general responsible for running Iran’s proxy network has been in and out of Beirut since October 7, according to local media, holding meetings with members of Hezbollah, Hamas and other Iran-backed groups. They consider themselves part of the “axis of resistance” against Israel.
But this strategy could backfire in ways that spread the conflict — even if neither side wants it, many U.S. officials warn.
“This is a very fine line to walk,” Christy Abizaid, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told a Senate committee on Tuesday. “In the current regional context, their actions carry the potential for miscalculation.”
Senior officials in the Biden administration have repeatedly warned Iran and its proxies against escalating the conflict. In the days after the attack, the president said his message to Iran and Hezbollah was: “Don’t do it. no. no. no.”
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech on Friday, one of the officials said, as intelligence officials will closely monitor any signs about the group’s intentions. A series of dramatic teaser videos posted on social media appear to indicate that the group is preparing to escalate the fight against Israel.
Nasrallah has issued dire warnings about the risk of war in the past that the group did not follow through on — including in April — and US officials have said for weeks they believe Hezbollah is reluctant to get directly involved. The group is a major political force in Lebanon, and US officials widely believe there is little appetite for war among the general public there.
But as Israel continues to bomb Gaza from the air – including two massive explosions on a refugee camp – the group may be pulled between competing political imperatives: maintaining legitimacy as a bastion of resistance against Israel while not dragging Lebanon into a potentially devastating war.
So far, Hezbollah has acted with some restraint. Although it has an arsenal of up to 150,000 missiles in addition to precision-guided munitions, it did nothing more than exchange missiles and artillery fire with Israel across the border. However, those clashes have been more intense than at any time since the group last fought a war with Israel in 2006.
“The question people are trying to understand is to what extent Hezbollah will be driven by its own ideology — it has told its members for years that it is at the forefront of resistance to Israel — versus how much it will be driven by its Iranian ideology.” “It looks to its own internal political desires and considerations,” Bannikov said.
Analysts say that Tehran itself faces a similar dilemma. Iran has praised the October 7 attack on Israel, but officials now say publicly that they are not seeking to expand the scope of the war and warn of the risk of worsening the situation.
“We don’t want this war to spread,” Iran’s foreign minister told CNN earlier this week. Any attack carried out in the region, and if American interests are targeted by any group, you know, linking them to the Republic of Iran without providing any evidence is completely wrong… They are not taking orders from us. “They are acting in their own interests.”
Iran has for years provided funding, weapons, and training to various proxy groups across the region, relationships it uses to confront Israel and the United States and exert influence throughout the Middle East — all while maintaining a degree of deniability about its involvement. Hamas, the group that carried out the October attack on Israel, is among those groups.
Although the United States assesses that Iran was not directly involved in planning the attack, American and Israeli officials have said Tehran is culpable because of its long-term support for Hamas.
But Iran, thanks to the money and advanced weapons it provides, has great influence.
“Since the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah get all of their most advanced weapons (drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, etc.) from Iran, this is always a strong incentive to continue pursuing.” [Iran’s] An American official noted.
But groups maintain varying degrees of independence.
The Houthis, in Yemen, are particularly independent from Tehran. But in Iraq and Syria, where Iran provides the bulk of support to a series of groups, all focused on expelling the American military establishment, Iran’s power has become stronger.
The Houthis have launched numerous missile and drone attacks since October 7, including the use of medium-range ballistic missiles that are widely believed to have been targeting Israel – a major escalation.
In Iraq and Syria, armed groups allied with Iran have launched dozens of attacks against US forces there since October 7.
“The president has been clear and I’ve been clear here that if this doesn’t stop, we will respond,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a Senate committee on Tuesday.
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