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Spring offensive in Ukraine – expert warns of complications


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A counteroffensive by Ukrainian armed forces in eastern and southern Ukraine is reportedly imminent. © Adrien Vautier/imago-images

Ukraine’s armed forces are facing a counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine. A victory would have a significant impact on the further course of the war.

WASHINGTON D.C. – Supporters of Ukraine have high hopes for an upcoming spring offensive by Ukrainian forces. But former US general Mark Hertling warned on Thursday (March 30) of the dangers of a counter-offensive and pointed to problems for the Ukrainian military in the coming weeks.

Earlier in the week, former Australian general and military expert Mick Ryan said in an analysis on Twitter that a successful Ukrainian offensive in the spring could have a major impact on the further course of the war. Ukraine war want “But if the West keeps up its nerve and the Ukrainians use their war power against the Russians to retake much of their country, the attacks could be the beginning of the end of this war,” Ryan wrote. However, The Australian predicted the coming months would be “heartbreakingly bloody”.

Ukrainian Counteroffensive – Russian Army “Attacked on Multiple Fronts”

Mark Hertling was a little less optimistic about the upcoming offensive. Hertling is a retired lieutenant general and commanded US forces in Europe between 2011 and 2012. In his analysis on Twitter, the 69-year-old warned against underestimating the Russian military. Although the armed forces were “exhausted and decimated on many fronts”, they had months to set up defensive positions in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Apart from the Russian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian Army has also suffered significant losses. Ukraine mainly lost foreign trained players. Hertling said that he was also involved in the training of Ukrainian players in Germany. “These are soldiers and leaders, whose presence changed the Ukrainian army. Many of them are now gone and sacrificed for their country. I worry about that,” Hertling said in his analysis.

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Kremlin will “willingly sacrifice” soldiers – US expert warns of problems with Ukrainian counteroffensive

In the spring, therefore, inexperienced personnel must undertake offensive operations. Additionally, many of the recruits were not yet familiar with Western equipment. “The Ukrainian army is good and experienced in combat, but like the Russian army at the beginning of the war, they are not empowered,” explained Hertling.

Another problem may be the terrain in the areas involved. In the south, Russian troops are back on the east bank of the Dnieper. The invaders have been able to establish and strengthen their positions there since November. So the Ukrainian forces must first cross the river and then break through the enemy lines. The plan would be further complicated by the fact that the Kremlin would “willingly sacrifice soldiers,” Hertling predicted.

Counteroffensive in Ukraine War – “Frozen Conflict” Threatens

“Russia will try to keep as much land as possible, which will contribute to another ‘frozen conflict’ in Europe (Transnistria, Abkhazia),” Hertling concluded. Ukraine, on the other hand, “will try to win back its sovereign country as much as possible.” (fd)

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