The future of the College Football Playoff contract beyond the 2025 season remains uncertain, with CEO Bill Hancock saying last week that there is a “need” to get the deal done next month.
Since its inception in 2014, when it created a four-team model for a sport with five major conferences, the CFP has been unwieldy and inconvenient.
The only certainties were the slow pace, the bickering on the turf and the unstable conference environment that kept everything smooth.
But with Hancock's one-month deadline looming in mid-March, there is optimism and “momentum” for a 14-team playoff starting in 2026, sources told ESPN. There is an effort to reach an agreement in the coming weeks, but nothing is certain, and there are potential roadblocks and expected pushback — as evidenced by the CFP's winding path to a 12-team playoff, sources said.
The television side of the deal has already been agreed in principle. Starting in 2026, ESPN is poised to spend nearly $1.3 billion on average on the playoffs over six seasons.
That leaves the CFP's two leadership groups — the Board of Directors (presidents and chancellors) and the Management Committee (commissioners and Notre Dame leadership) — to come to a decision on what the deal will look like to get done.
Sources told ESPN that the goal is for all commissioners to meet again next week via video conferencing to continue discussing matters.
“There is a lot of pressure to get it done or stop talking about it,” one source said.
Another source summed up the cautious optimism about cohesion in the group this way: “Balance in the chamber is how do we acknowledge the contributions of the Big Ten and the SEC while also being fair and collaborative with the collective chamber.”
There are three main issues going forward – access through auto-qualification, dividing the funds, and how to manage the pool.
Sources caution that discussions are ongoing and fluid, and there is still work being done on these three key issues. This is the current situation, with sources saying things may change.
appearance
The expected increase in automatic qualifying spots soon after the start of the five AQ spots in the 12-team playoffs starting this season is an indication of the conference's changing dynamics.
According to sources, the model that received the most discussion coming out of the CFP meeting in Dallas is one that would include three automatic qualifying spots for the Big Ten and SEC, two for the Big 12 and ACC and one for the Group of Five. That would leave three overall spots in this 14-team model.
As for Notre Dame, sources told ESPN that the most likely option being discussed is that the Fighting Irish would earn a spot on the 14-team CFP if the selection committee ranks them among the top 14 teams on selection day.
Sources caution that there are other models being discussed, and there should be a deeper discussion about how schedule strength impacts the 3/3, 2/2, 1 and 3 models. The CFP is not constrained by this model, and still has a ways to go.
There has been no significant modeling done yet by Hancock and CFP officials on how these models might look in the CFP era. If things change from the much-discussed AQ distribution, it may be because modeling will show what the results might look like in the coming years. Any practice is difficult, however, because no one knows what the 16-team SEC and 18-team Big Ten will look like at the end of the season.
With the addition of strong programs and the weakening of other leagues, it's difficult to predict what the coming years will look like in the SEC and Big Ten. The possibility of knocking SEC and Big Ten teams out of the top 14 — as they have 34 teams and a majority of programs in contention for the title — is real and will be examined further in the coming weeks.
How does that work? Essentially, a No. 13 or No. 14 seeded team, for example, could end up beating the winner of the Group of Five, the second-place ACC team or the Big 12 team in a year when the league has a runaway winner and no clear No. 2 pick. There's also the possibility that the fourth-best Big Ten and SEC teams — and perhaps fifth — could find a landing spot in the CFP through one of those three at-large spots.
The modeling process is difficult, as college sports remain a moving target. This ESPN deal will run through the 2031 season, and it's naive to think the conference map will look the same as it does today. The presidents and chancellors of both the SEC and Big Ten are in talks about whether to continue their membership in the NCAA, a high-ranking official involved in the discussions told ESPN on Wednesday. It is a move that would affect and possibly disrupt the television broadcast agreement.
“Those talks are taking place,” the source said, adding that some “strongly want to withdraw. I would say that strongly.”
ESPN reported earlier this month that Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettitte mentioned at a meeting this fall about the possibility of an expanded playoff.
All CFP policies are local, and Petitti's chair is easy to understand. It has an 18-team league with four new teams – USC, Oregon, Washington and UCLA. Two of those four — Oregon and Washington — have participated in the CFP as Pac-12 members in the past decade. USC has won a national title in the stadium since the turn of the century.
Petitti appreciates the way automatic qualifying games can add meaning and interest late in the regular season — similar to the NFL. College football fans will need to adjust to the fact that a three-game losing team with a tough schedule can still make the playoff after generations where perfection or near-perfection was essentially required.
financial affairs
There is some work to be done on finances and how to divide them, but the picture becomes clearer if a 14-team model is accepted.
In the old model, about 80% of CFP revenue went to the Power 5, while 20% was allocated to the Group of Five. According to the latest data from the CFP, each of the Power 5 conferences received $79.41 million — a total of nearly $400 million — in the spring of 2023. The Group of Five conferences split $102.77 million. Notre Dame received a $3.89 million boost by meeting the NCAA's APR criteria, while the other six independents split $1.89 million.
The new model promises to be more weighted towards the SEC and Big Ten.
Sources told ESPN that discussions centered around SEC and Big Ten earnings being somewhere between 25% and 30% of CFP revenue. The ACC and Big 12 will be next, gaining between 15% and 20%. That leaves a smaller portion — somewhere around 6% to 10% for other leagues and about 1% for Notre Dame.
Sources warn that the math is not clean, as some of the money will have to go to expenses and to places like the remaining independents (UConn). But these are the overall fiscal goals being discussed. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey explained that the SEC had turned over 40% of teams in the playoffs, and was one of the primary drivers behind the new revenue model.
As always with money, it's not easy. But the ranges are improved enough that they seem tight.
Judgment
The only thing CFP leaders seem to be unanimously in favor of is eliminating the rule requiring unanimity to make playoff changes. Sometimes it's the 10 FBS commissioners who can't agree. Other times, the presidents and chancellors of the 11 universities have ultimate authority over the playoff.
Regardless, the rule has stalled important proposals or caused controversial delays. In February 2022, the CFP announced it would remain a four-team playoff after an 8-3 vote in which the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 voted against expansion. It wasn't until seven months later that the presidents and chancellors usurped the commissioners and unanimously agreed to expand the format to 12 teams.
CFP leaders want to avoid another situation like what happened recently when the Pac-12 single-handedly delayed the move from a 6+6 model to a 5+7 format with 12 teams. The vote had to be unanimous, and the Pac-12 had either previously abstained or requested a postponement while it worked to determine its future after the sweeping reorganization.
Earlier this month, Washington State President Kirk Schulz, who represents the two Pac-12 schools on the CFP board, voted in favor of the 5+7 model, finally approving the change to reward the five highest-ranked conference champions with playoff spots.
“You don't want one person to catch it, it doesn't work,” a source said.
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