It was not clear from Thursday’s decree how Moscow plans to increase its troop numbers, and whether it would include hiring more contractors, increasing the number of recruits or both. The Kremlin insisted on describing the war as a “special military operation,” with Putin refraining from calling for full mobilization at home.
“Putin has been reluctant to do so because he has tried to insulate the Russian population from the costs of the war by using mercenaries from the Wagner Special Security Organization, recruiting in the country’s non-Russian ethnic republics, from prison inmates and using press gangs in occupied parts of Ukraine,” he said. Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, told NBC News.
“But the Russian army is now exhausted, and the ad hoc recruitment methods do not provide enough new forces. Therefore, the Russian authorities announced an increase in the size of the army to fill the gaps from the losses of the war,” he added. “This is a dangerous moment for the Russian president, as the announcement is an admission that the ‘special military operation’ has gone seriously off-plan, and now the broader Russian people will have to start paying the price with the lives of their children.”
Other experts raised doubts about whether the decree would in fact lead to a significant increase in troop numbers, especially in the short term.
“This is easier to decide than to do,” said Mark Galeotti, Senior Fellow at RUSI, on Twitter.
It was a “clear indication that Russia now knows it is on its way to a long campaign,” said Michael Clarke, professor of war studies at King’s College London.
“Nothing in this decree will make a difference until next spring,” he added. “This is when we can expect a second major Russian attack, having effectively guarded themselves for winter and prepared for it in the spring – hopefully more efficient than when they began this process.”
All Russian men between the ages of 18 and 27 must serve in the army for one year.
The Russian army detains conscripts twice a year, starting from 1 April and 1 October. Putin ordered 134,500 recruits during the most recent spring draft earlier this year and 127,500 last fall.
In recent years, the Kremlin has stressed an increase in the proportion of contract volunteer soldiers as it seeks to modernize the army and improve its preparedness.
Associated Press Contributed.
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