Putin is increasingly isolated – experts warn of new escalation

Russia

This is the fate of many dictators in history. The circle of believers is getting smaller, and those in power are becoming more and more paranoid. As they do not allow critical voices and objections, Sooner or later, many dictators surround themselves with more and more yes-men.

According to international observers, the same applies to Russian President Vladimir Putin. US think tank RAND now confirms that the Kremlin leader “does not allow any economic or military advice” outside his inner circle.

Putin has already withdrawn more and more during the corona pandemic. Fearing contagion, he received only state guests at a long table. Pictures of different state receptions later went around the world.

Vladimir Putin and President Olaf Scholes during a state visit in February 2022. Build: Imago Images/ZUMA Wire

Rumors about Putin’s health continued. It was reported that the President was seriously ill Intelligence documents leaked Referred to as chemotherapy for cancer.

Because there is an international arrest warrant against PutinThe Kremlin leader’s freedom of movement is already severely restricted, according to the International Criminal Court, which is responsible for war crimes in Ukraine.

Ukraine war: Putin’s isolation makes him even more dangerous

Experts from the American think tank RAND have now analyzed Due to Putin’s isolation, the risk of an escalation of the war in Ukraine is increasing. In addition to mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash near Moscow at the end of August, another longtime confidant of Putin may soon disappear: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Putin had Shoigu responsible for military setbacks in the Ukraine war. Recently set up an ultimatum. Shoigu must improve Russia’s position in the Donbass by October. Putin opened up about the consequences of failure.

According to Rand’s analysis, large-scale air and missile attacks against the Ukrainian population are also likely to escalate later. That is why experts have called for Ukraine to provide anti-aircraft missiles to repel these attacks.

Because if the Ukrainian air defense cannot prevent such airstrikes against civilians, there may be a risk of an “escalation spiral” by Ukrainian “retaliatory strikes” in Russia.

Injured woman in front of her home damaged by a Russian missile attack in the Donetsk region.Photo: AP / Alex Babenko

More recently, Markus Reisner, the Austrian military’s Ukraine expert, warned against overestimating Ukraine’s partial successes in the counteroffensive against the Russian military. “All alarm bells should be ringing that after 117 days of counter-offensive no operational progress has been achieved,” he told a German press agency.

Reisner also ruled that Ukraine had not received enough military equipment to defend itself against Russian airstrikes internally. “Only through increased air defense can we minimize impacts on critical infrastructure.” If the country’s electricity supply suffers severe damage again, the backbone of arms production will also break.

(With material from dpa)