Oleksij Melnyk in an interview: “We are still afraid of victory against Russia”

Oleksiy Melnyk, a Ukrainian military expert, attributes the failure of the Ukrainian summer offensive to the reluctant support of the West. Whether it’s about tanks, cruise missiles or warplanes: “This should not defeat Ukraine. People are still afraid of a victory against Russia. They are reacting instead of acting.” However, Melnyk sees no reason for pessimism.

ntv.de: Mr. Melnik, how do you assess the strategic results of the 2023 military campaign for Ukraine so far?

Oleksij Melnyk: First important for me: since the year is not over yet, we can only talk about provisional results. It is not a fixed phrase. It’s not like the front doesn’t move anymore. In general, we can talk about a certain area of ​​success for Ukraine. I am not referring here to the summer offensive operation: it is obvious that the desired tasks were unfortunately not even partially accomplished. But we don’t see any special offensive actions by Russia. Apart from the offensive operation in the south, Ukraine was able to hold the lead on essentially all other fronts – and clearly held the strategic initiative until the end of October.

What went wrong with the summer attack? Some experts, such as Mykola Beleskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, would prefer Ukraine to remain on active defense this year, as in 2022, given the amount of weapons provided. Do you share this opinion?

Well, now we can say for sure that the start of the process has been pushed back several times. I think the decisive factor for this was the insufficient supply of the Ukrainian army. Ammunition and weapons arrived very slowly. On the other hand, there was the seasonal factor: each lost summer month left less time for active offensive operations. A very difficult question is whether it is right to start acting knowing that you are not optimally prepared. We have seen how effectively Russia used time to prepare her defensive lines. If they had more time, they wouldn’t have wasted it doing nothing. Also, repeatedly liberating Ukraine’s territory with extreme security won’t last forever anyway. If the idea existed among high-ranking commanders, it was highly unpopular, and for good reason, apart from the obvious political factors.

Could it be said that the main reason for the failed attack was the time lost due to the slow supply of weapons used by Russia to build up the defensive lines?

is safe. Let’s remember the F-16 debate: the same people who spent months explaining why Ukraine didn’t have time to deliver F-16s basically wondered why such a move would be difficult without air superiority. Tanks, cruise missiles, whatever – it always works on the same principle. The main problem is that the basic approaches have never fundamentally changed. This means that Ukraine should not be lost. People are still afraid of victory against Russia. You are reacting instead of acting.

How will the Ukrainian Armed Forces behave tactically on the battlefield in the future?

First, of course, it is about active defense to create the conditions for offensive operations next year. This includes exhausting the enemy, destroying logistics routes, eliminating Russian air defenses, and striking deep into the Russian interior, for example in large concentrations of Russian aircraft. Let’s see later.

The British “Economist” recently published three texts: an article on Valery Zalushny, the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, an article with excerpts from an interview with him, and Zalushny’s almost scientific text on modern trench warfare. In these articles, Saluschnyj warns of a long war that threatens Ukraine, and specifically mentions five areas for breaking out of the current stalemate. How do you rate these publications?

I found many interesting things in it. I think some of the suggestions for the fight against drones or electronic warfare are very exciting. But I don’t know if these five areas alone will help to turn the war decisively. Because they are needed today and today. Things can look significantly different in three months – by the way, we don’t need to be negative. Even after the deployment of massive armies, the nature of armed conflict did not change. No single type of weapon creates superiority over centuries. Where there is action there is reaction.

To be more precise: Turkish Bayraktar drones, for example, played an important role at the beginning of the war, but the Russians quickly learned how to counter them. As for drones, the main question on both sides is which is now developing faster: drones or technologies to combat drones. One of the most important questions of this battle is who will be faster and more efficient here. Because Saluschnyj is certainly right: with the current equipment with drones, it is very difficult to carry out attacks with large columns, because both sides see everything. Tanks are the target of the enemy as a means of attack. But both drones and large-scale attacks will certainly be part of the war. The tactic of small raiding parties used by both sides is not a tactic to win wars. We have to be quick and innovative here. Then a lot is possible.

Ukrainians have been trying for weeks and months to strengthen their presence in the Kherson district on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, which is controlled by Russia. Obviously with success. The Russians have recently launched massive offensives in the direction of the city of Avdiyvka in eastern Donetsk district. How important are all these measures?

The history of the east bank of the Dnipro is still difficult to assess. From what we see, one can talk about preparing ways to surprise the enemy. It’s classic, textbook warfare: misleading the enemy and attacking where you really need to defend yourself. For now, I won’t make any judgments about whether this is a diversionary tactic or a stage for a surprise attack.

As for Avtivka, since the acceptance of Pakmut the Russians have been trying to find an area where they can also attack. Now they are confident that they can progress there. I watch their gaze carefully.

How do you feel about 2024 and its military campaign?

Personally, I feel cautious optimism. In Ukraine we always go through big waves of emotions. This too, albeit on a different scale, long predated the Great War. Feelings of disappointment and devastation alternate rapidly with hope and optimism. Despite the difficult situation, we know that we should not overdo it.

Mit Oleksij Melnyk Sprach Denis Trubetskoy