NFL Week 7 odds, picks: Lions continue to roll against Ravens, Dolphins split injury-plagued Eagles

Week 6 was gross. Low scoring games, poor match flow throughout, and your showing was really lackluster with my picks. I’m 6-9 ATS on the slate and only 2-3 ATS with my week locks, thanks in large part to being on the wrong side of the biggest upset by backing San Francisco and Philadelphia. While the Bills got an outright win, they only managed to get by 14 points instead of clearing the spread for two touchdowns.

A bit of luck came to us at Raiders-Patriots as Maxx Crosby sacked Mac Jones in the end zone for a safety that allowed us to cover the Las Vegas -3. Aside from that, we’re excited to move into week seven. It’s a smaller list with six teams on the bye, so there’s no room for error. Let’s go to it.

Record 2023

Regular semester
Locks of the week ATS: 16-14
Amphetamine stimulants: 45-45-3
Ml: 56-37

everyone NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

The Bills nearly fell victim to what was an upset weekend in Week 6, but held on at the last second to beat the Giants. The offense hasn’t looked particularly in sync over the last few weeks, and they are scheduled to have a good game, which I expect to come Sunday in Foxboro. New England is a bad football team where everything seems difficult, especially on offense. Even last week’s two touchdown drives took 27 plays combined. The Patriots don’t have the ability to keep up with Buffalo’s offense, even if it is moving at less than 100%.

Expected resultBills 27, Patriots 13
Pickaxe: Bills -8.5

Cleveland’s defense is special. They just held the 49ers to the fewest rushing yards of any game under coach Kyle Shanahan, and it’s not just because of the weather. This season, the Browns are holding opponents to 200.4 yards per game, the fewest through five games of any team since the 1971 Colts. No matter who falls under center for them, this defense should be able to contain Indianapolis to put the Browns in a position to win. With Anthony Richardson on as an injured substitute, it will be Gardner Mincio who will start again at midfield. He’s coming off his worst performance of the season with three interceptions against the Jaguars and has completed just 61% of his passes in his starts so far. I can’t see him running any corners against this defense.

Expected result: Brown 23, Colt 17
Pickaxe:Brown-2

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo)

It’s easy to say now after Jalen Hurts’ three-interception day in the loss to New York last week, but Philadelphia has looked the other way on more than one occasion this season. On top of the lack of consistency offensively, the secondary is in poor shape with an accumulation of injuries, especially at safety. That’s a bad combination with a high-caliber offense like the Dolphins are next on the schedule. Miami leads NFL Yards per play and yards per pass attempt by fairly large margins. Tyreek Hill continues to make a legitimate MVP case, as he is on pace for over 2,300 receiving yards. Now, he’s got a Philly secondary allowing 302 yards per home game this season (second-most in the NFL). I simply like the Dolphins’ trajectory more right now than the Eagles.

Expected result: Dolphins 30, Eagles 27
Pickaxe: Dolphins +1.5

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, Fubo)

Possibly sneaky power Preview in the 1 p.m. window. While it’s conceivable that both teams will represent their conferences in Las Vegas in February, the Lions are the better football team, so I’ll be more than happy to put a field goal in my pocket with a 3-0 SU and ATS team on the road in 2023. It will be a showdown The key is Detroit’s offense (the No. 4 scoring unit in the NFL) facing off against Baltimore’s stout defense. The Ravens have struggled to maintain a lead over the past few seasons, which makes me side with the Lions’ offense. John Harbaugh’s club are also coming off a game in London where they made 70 appearances (tied for second this season), so fatigue may be a factor here too.

Expected result: Lions 24, Ravens 20
Pickaxe: Black +3

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo)

Denver’s defense looked much better against Kansas City than it has all season in Week 6, but I wonder if that was even more unusual than this unit was at the turn. The Broncos now host a Packers team that was able to rest up during Week 6, self-exploration, and patch up some of the rough patches we saw in the first few weeks with Jordan Love. If Denver’s secondary looks more like it did in the first month of the year, there should be plenty of opportunities for Christian Watson and the rest of the Packers’ receivers to grab big plays. As for the Packers, their defense has held opponents to 4.9 yards per game this season, which is in the top 10 in the league. The Broncos are also 0-3 ATS at home.

Expected result: Packers 26, Broncos 20
Pickaxe: Packing -1

The rest of the group

Jaguars at Saints
Expected result: Jaguars 23, Saints 21
Pickaxe: Jaguar +1

Raiders in Bears
Expected result:Raiders 23, Bears 17
Pickaxe: Raiders-3

Leaders in the Giants
Expected result: Leaders 24, Giants 21
Pickaxe:Leaders-2

Hawks in Buccaneers
Expected result: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 16
Pickaxe: Pirates -2.5

Steelers at Rams
Expected result: Rams 26, Steelers 20
Pickaxe: Rams -3

Cardinals at Seahawks
Expected result: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 17
Pickaxe: Seahawks -8

Chargers in Chiefs
Expected result:Chiefs 33, Chargers 24
Pickaxe: Heads -5.5

49ers at Vikings
Expected result: 49ers 28, Vikings 20
Pickaxe: 49ers -6.5