NFL Draft standings predictions: Giants are now in first place, Rams are in the top 10

How did Week 9 of the NFL schedule change the potential 2024 NFL Draft standings?

For an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s forecast. Mock displays the score for each game and the final winning percentage for each team using its NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation is then run 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top 10 standings, as well as each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.

Some thoughts on this week’s forecast:

1. The Giants seize the lead

Back-to-back losses to the Jets and Raiders (by 24), a 2-7 record, and now a season-ending injury to QB Daniel Jones — the Giants, after a year of being an unlikely success story, are in disarray . Mock’s latest projections have New York only winning a title or two, and even that may be an exaggeration with Tommy DeVito and Matt Barkley taking over the QB duties in Jones’ absence.

Brian Daboll confirms that Daniel Jones’ MRI revealed a torn ACL.

– Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) November 6, 2023

Jones still has three years (and about $112 million in base salary) remaining on the extension he signed in March, but The athlete“General manager Joe Schoen’s scouting itinerary this fall already suggests he’s been keeping tabs on top college quarterbacks,” Dan Duggan noted Sunday. … Schoen has attended two USC games in the past three weeks, giving him a close look at the selection. No. 1 prospect Caleb Williams Schwinn also scouted the other top pick prospect, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, in September. He scouted the No. 3 quarterback in this class, Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, in October.

If the season ended today, the Giants would pick No. 4. They are clearly going in the wrong direction.

2. Which team will try to beat Brock Powers?

This isn’t necessarily a projections-related conversation, but — as everyone has been saying for months — the QB duo of Caleb Williams and Drake May will land in the top two or three picks, and hot WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will likely join them. Conventional wisdom suggests that the focus from there will shift toward “premium” positions, such as offensive tackle or edge: Penn State’s Olu Fashanu, Notre Dame’s Joe Alt, Alabama’s Dallas Turner and UCLA’s Lato Latu all landed in the top 10 in Dane Brugler’s latest list. Great council.

Go deeper

NFL Draft 2024 Big Board: Dane Brugler’s top 50 midseason prospects

But what about Bowers? From Brugler:

More than just a receiver/tight end hybrid, Bowers has the speed and athleticism that jumps off the screen. His athleticism is almost as impressive, both as a guard and after the catch, as he masters picking up those hidden yards. I thought this quote from an area scout was a perfect summation: “It’s 21-year-old George Kittle. That would put him (in) the top seven.

Would the Giants consider pairing Bowers with Jones? Could Chicago — currently projected to pick No. 2 (via Carolina) and No. 4 — make him their second top-five pick? Does Bill Belichick see Bowers as the centerpiece of a transformation, the new Rob Gronkowski?

It will be great to track Bowers’ stock over the coming months.

3. Welcome to the top 10 list…

… Los Angeles. For a while, the Rams looked like a potential playoff contender. But they came into the game as losers of three straight games, as QB Matthew Stafford suffered a right thumb injury that sidelined him Sunday in Green Bay.

Sean McVay’s club plays four of its next six games at home (with a road trip to lowly Arizona there as well), but the team will likely be an underdog in three of those games (Seattle, Cleveland, New Orleans) and perhaps a fourth (Washington).

How many years does this current core have left? Stafford, 35, has been no stranger to injuries throughout his career — and to his credit, he has played through them on him who are they. Aaron Donald, 32, has been contemplating retirement since the Rams won the Super Bowl. Cooper Kupp, 30, remains one of the best receivers in the game when healthy, but has struggled to get on the field over the past two seasons.

Could a top-five (or top-3) pick change the Rams’ plans?

Go deeper

Rodrigue: A bleak day for Rams leads to bigger questions about the short and long term

4. Are the Bills still a Super Bowl contender?

Yes, probably, that’s the short answer. This is still a team with a top-tier quarterback, elite offensive talent, and a defense that can dominate games. It’s just not clicking now. The Bills have dropped three of their past five, dropping both their expected win total (9.9) and their expected playoff chance (59.3 percent).

Obviously, the 59.3 percent playoff shooting percentage still matters, and Buffalo is just a game back from Miami in the AFC East (and a half-game back in the wild-card picture). But the Bills now have the 10th best odds of winning the Super Bowl (3.6 percent), lower than five other teams in the AFC.

Go deeper

NFL Draft 2023 Prospect Tracker: Profiles, news and analysis of top players by position

5. Get ready for the Panthers-Bears game

Kind of a weird win-win situation this week for the 2-7 Bears, who host the 1-7 Panthers in what looks like an absolute nightmare of a Thursday night game (and thus, will undoubtedly produce must-see content, even if it is ironic).

Regardless of the outcome, it will help the Bears move toward the No. 1 pick — either Chicago wins and moves the Panthers closer to the top line or Chicago loses and puts its pick in the top two. There’s going to be a lot of chatter between now and April about what exactly the Bears should do with this early double-drop: QB and Harrison? Offensive tackle and pass rusher? Harrison and trade down?

Nothing that happens Thursday night will derail the trip.

(Photo: Ian Mulley/Getty Images)

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the 100 greatest NFL players of all time, is on sale now. Ask for it here.