The next several years, with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and the Phillies’ best players either in or just reaching their prime, will determine how this era’s group is remembered. Will it be the team that overcame back-to-back heartbreaking late-October exits to finally win it all, or the expensive club that, as Nick Castellanos put it, “underachieved?”
The 2022 and 2023 Phillies teams are built around a potent offense and one of baseball’s best rotations. For large portions of the season, they were carried by one or the other. There were times when both units clicked simultaneously and they kept running like mid-June (winning 13 of 15), late June (9 of 11), early August (9 of 12), late August (7 of 8) and late September (7 straight).
For two weeks in October to start the playoffs, the Phillies were the peak version of themselves. They were averaging two home runs and two stolen bases per night, and their pitching staff had a collective ERA in the mid-2000s. They were a team on fire, jumping on leads early every night and holding on to them. The Diamondbacks didn’t look like they belonged in the same field as the Phillies in Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS, before they made a series of wise and effective adjustments that the Phillies couldn’t solve.
In successive Octobers, the Phillies’ offense became weak until the end of the year. The lineup went 9-for-98 to end the 2022 World Series. That was against an experienced Astros pitching staff loaded with talent and experience in Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier and a locked-down back end of the bullpen.
This time, the fall came to end the NLCS, despite the Phillies hitting Arizona’s best pitcher, Zach Gallen, hard. They hit Meryl Kelly hard in Game 2 as well. Then they chased ball after ball after ball the rest of the series. Turner and Castellanos were striking examples. They were locked in during the wild card round and NLDS and that extended into the start of the NLCS. They and the Phils lineup as a whole had great success ambushing the pitcher’s first pitch. The D-backs decided to stop throwing pitches in the zone to start the count. It worked. Turner chased his curveball into the dirt. Castellanos swung freely at the low and far slider. JT Realmuto chased down a high fastball.
The Phillies talked about being built for these moments, but the bats told a different story. They told the story of players trying to end a series in one fell swoop rather than letting the game get to them.
“We’ve swung at too many pitches outside the strike zone this year, which is too many,” President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski said in his closing year-end news conference late last week. “I know we have guys chasing, but for whatever reason, they chased more this year, and that’s something I think we need to address and something I know we’ll address because we’ve already had meetings on how to get better in that regard.”
On the surface, it doesn’t look like there will be many major changes this season. When asked how the Phillies can correct the severe streak of the past two Octobers, Dombrowski went through the lineup to highlight the number of blocked positions.
“It’s difficult for me when I look around our club that we struggle to score goals sometimes because I’m not sure where it’s going to go,” he said. “Guys can have better seasons. JT Realmuto is one of the best players in baseball. Price is a great player. (Bryson) Stott is a young, growing player but he’s done well. Turner at shortstop is a star player at the end here, the last four Matches.” Or five games, he struggled. (Alec) Boom is a good hitter. Castellanos struggled in the end, which he tends to do, but he swung the bat well, too. We love Brandon Marsh, he continues to grow. (Kyle) Schwarber is an outstanding hitter.”
Then he arrived in the middle of the field. Johan Rojas was called up on July 14 of this season, a month before his 23rd birthday. He arrived ahead of schedule for three reasons: Christian Pasch was injured, Rojas has elite defensive skills and has shown offensive improvement in the minor leagues.
Initially, he was going to fill in for Bachie until Bachie was ready to return from his elbow injury. But Rojas’ defense immediately made the Phillies a better team. Beyond that, he was holding his own at the plate. He hit .302 with a .342 on-base percentage in 164 plate appearances. He put up six sacrifices, although the placement wasn’t great. Most thought the league would catch up and that it would decline at some point, but that slump didn’t happen until the playoffs. And when it hit, it hit hard. Rojas went 4-for-43 with one walk and 15 strikeouts. By the end of the postseason, Marsh was set up so Rojas could be attacked.
The day-to-day center field job will not be turned over to Rojas, Dombrowski said. He’ll have to earn it.
“You’re always looking to get better,” Dombrowski said. “Rojas’ defense far outpaced his offense during the regular season. My question with him when we made the move to bring him to the big league level was, ‘Can he keep his head above water to keep him in his defensive lineup because he’s our other offense?’ The answer was: “I think we can do it.” And we really did until we got to the postseason and they really went after him and he scrimmaged at that point.
He added, “So I will not give him a position with our club that plays in the big league next year. He has to be able to contribute some attackingly otherwise he has to go down to continue developing. That doesn’t mean we don’t do that.” “I like him. We think he’s a really good player. But we need more offense out of position. I don’t know that there’s anything different other than continuing to work on trying to control the offensive zone.”
There are too many pieces of the Phillies’ offseason up in the air for a decision to be made regarding Harper’s defensive future. Is he a first baseman moving forward? Will the Phillies try to play him in right field again? Do they play him in left field to keep Castellanos in the position he has spent the past two seasons?
If Harper is the first baseman in 2024, that would likely take Rhys Hoskins out. There wouldn’t be enough playing time for Hoskins in that scenario unless Schwarber returns to left field at least part-time, and Schwarber’s 80 games in left field could negate some or most of the offense Hoskins had to add.
If Harper is ready and willing to return to right field, perhaps the Phillies might explore trades for Castellano and retain Haskins in free agency. Finding a suitor will not be easy. Castellanos bounces back in 2023 but is owed $60 million over the next three years.
The Phillies’ top priority this offseason is to re-sign Aaron Nola or find a replacement for him. Furthermore, they will likely add a right-handed reliever in the late inning and could benefit from a beefed-up bench.
Dombrowski believes that if the Phillies can re-sign Nola or find a suitable replacement at the top of the rotation, this will be a World Series-caliber roster in 2024.
“I think if we do those things, we’ll go into it as World Series contenders,” he said. “We’ve got a really good club, and I think we’re better than a 90-win club, personally. I think we need to address how to get out of the gates quicker.” From what we have. Two years in a row, we suddenly dug ourselves holes after 50 games or so, playing at a 100-win pace. Well, it would be a good idea to start doing that from day one after spring training, and if we did, a lot would be solved.
“I think we have a very talented club. This is a good team. There are a lot of star players in this team and not just stars but also good support players. Stott is good, Bohm is good, Marsh is good, and I think Rojas will be good.” (Christopher) Sanchez helped us. (Orion) Kerkering will be a good player for us. We have a good group of players.
“Anytime you get beaten, it’s frustrating, and I’m not sitting here super excited, but when you start looking at the Whites, we’ve got a good team. And it’s not like our guys still aren’t at their best. I think we have to “Addressing the underlying situation, but if we do that, I’m in a position where I think this club, we can play, we’re in good shape.”
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