Is Putin out of favor soon? China’s “endless” friendship with Russia has been strained by the Ukraine war

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Air: Sven Hauberg

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin: The relationship between the two leaders is becoming more complicated. © Ergei Karpukhin/Sputnik/AFP

China is furious with Russia after its embassy in Odessa was damaged in an attack and a grain deal with Ukraine was suspended. Beijing is now seeking proximity to Kiev.

Munich/Beijing – The damage is not great, but the anger is high. “Sovereignty Chinas should not be easily violated,” wrote one user on China’s social network Weibo. “One wonders if this was deliberate,” speculated another. Earlier Thursday, it was known that In the Russian attack on Odessa The Chinese delegation in the Ukrainian port city was also affected. “The explosion occurred near the Chinese consulate in Odessa, and the blast wave damaged part of the walls and windows,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. Peking.

Pictures shared on Weibo show a broken window pane and some peeling paint. Apparently, none of the embassy staff were injured in the attack because they were “evacuate long ago,” Beijing’s Foreign Office said. One follows developments and is “in touch with stakeholders”.

It is doubtful that the incident in Odessa has what it takes to permanently damage the “rock-solid” friendship between China and Russia. Nevertheless, the rift in the relationship between the two neighbors is still evident. For example, it expressed its anger at the Russian announcement of a grain deal with China Ukraine Must expire. No grain has been shipped from Odessa by the Black Sea since last Monday; The same day, Beijing said it hoped the deal would be implemented again “fully” — almost a frontal attack on Moscow by Chinese standards.

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Russia’s attack on Odessa: Exports to China also affected

And with good reason: Although China is home to about 18 percent of the world’s population, it has only nine percent of the world’s available arable land. Hence a large quantity of food has to be imported from abroad. Almost 30 percent of China’s corn imports come from Ukraine. “Without imports from Ukraine, prices on the domestic market will increase,” he said South China Morning Post An agricultural researcher from Beijing.

The latest Russian attacks on Odessa are loud Volodymyr Zelenskyj It also destroyed 60,000 tonnes of agricultural produce for export to China. “That means everyone is affected by this Russian terrorism,” Ukraine’s president said on Wednesday.

Just how serious the situation in China was was made clear by the visit of Ukraine’s deputy economy minister to Beijing on Friday: Taras Kachka, welcomed by China’s deputy trade minister Ling Ji, was the highest-ranking visitor from Ukraine Beijing has received since the start of the war. China wants to import more “high-quality products” from Ukraine in the future, it was said after the meeting in Beijing. The People’s Republic is currently struggling with drought and floods, further worsening the supply situation.

Russia after the Wagner coup: China fears an unstable neighbor

Besides China, countries in Africa and the Middle East are particularly dependent on Ukrainian food exports. In other words, who knows China’s influence with countries with which Beijing has traditionally maintained cordial relations — and with its junior ally, Russia. Should China, which has always presented itself as a responsible player on the world stage, allow Vladimir Putin to continue: It will also be up to the head of state. Xi Jinping Loss of reputation.

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Beijing is concerned not only about the end of the grain deal, but also about the attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries. The mercenaries marching unhindered toward Moscow shows either that Russia is incapable of acting or that Wagner’s people have supporters among Russia’s elite, East European expert Sebastian Hobb said in a recent interview. Münchner Merkur. “Both of these will harm China’s relations with Russia.”

The last thing China wants is an unstable neighbor. Above all, both countries share 4200 km long border. It also means that China wants the war to end quickly, rather than the total collapse of Putin’s regime, as the leadership in Beijing has always insisted. This is one of the reasons why Beijing finally decided Western sanctions against Russia Not growing, but expanding trade relations.

China and Russia continue to cooperate, including militarily

Customs data released on Tuesday showed that Chinese imports from Russia rose 19.4 percent in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year; China’s exports to Russia also rose by 78.1 percent. China appears to be filling the void left by Western companies pulling out of Russia and exporting cars, cellphones and computers to the country — “but not advanced technology that Russia lacks,” according to a recent study by the US think tank the Atlantic Council.

At the same time, China shows no signs of ending its military cooperation with Russia. On Thursday, the two countries began four days of military exercises in the Sea of ​​Japan, according to the Ministry of Defense in Beijing.

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When dealing with Russia, China seeks closeness and distance in equal measure. Putin should come in Ukraine war But as Beijing continues to hurt its interests, the Chinese will at some point run out of patience.

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