Cloud seeding is “a distraction from the real story”

It is raining unusually heavy in Dubai. While some point to cloud seeding as the cause, experts see another culprit.

DUBAI – Heavy rain in Dubai on April 16 has sparked speculation: could it be the result of “cloud seeding”? Experts disagree with this theory for various reasons. Edward Grisbeard of Imperial College London explains: “Cloud seeding is the enhancement of precipitation from vulnerable clouds.” Not every cloud is suitable for this. “You cannot create a cloud or rain out of nothing,” emphasizes the expert. “You need a cloud that's already on the verge of making rain, and then you can 'flip' into rain.”

While the effectiveness of cloud seeding, that is, seeding a cloud that will later produce rain, is difficult to determine, Griesbeard adds: “Once you seed a cloud, you never know that it wouldn't have rained anyway. As the inoculated clouds were already close to rain, it was difficult to determine what effect the inoculation had. He points out that although the UAE does cloud seeding, there is a significant difference between what this method can achieve and the heavy rains in Dubai.

Dubai rains: Experts blame climate change

Harrison points out: “The processes involved are so different in scale that I cannot see how precipitation and cloud seeding are related. Also, given the forecast of heavy rain, there would be no reason to undertake cloud seeding under these conditions: “Atmospheric moisture is expected to increase over time with warmer weather.” For more extreme precipitation events.

Other experts also see climate change as the real culprit. John Marsham of the University of Leeds called the suggestion that the Dubai rains could be linked to cloud seeding a “distraction from the real story”. He explains: “We know that human-made climate change is increasing rainfall. This is a well-understood physical fact, as warm air has more water.” Marsham firmly believes: “The potential effect of cloud seeding in Dubai's conditions will be small.” In addition, weather models have already indicated the risk of heavy rain days before.

“The focus on cloud seeding is misplaced”

Frederick Otto of Imperial College London agrees: “If we talk about heavy rains, we have to talk about climate change. The focus on cloud seeding is misleading. “Although cloud seeding may have caused the clouds around Dubai to shed water, the atmosphere would have allowed more water to form clouds due to climate change,” Otto adds.

The scientist warns: “If people continue to burn oil, gas and coal, the climate will continue to warm, precipitation will continue to increase and people will continue to lose their lives in floods”. Regarding cloud seeding.

Heavy rain in Dubai: triggered by “mesoscale convective system”.

Suzanne Gray, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, explains the rain event in Dubai as a “mesoscale convective system”, which occurs when several separate thunderstorms form a large cloud cover that covers a large area with heavy rainfall. “They are not rare events for the Middle East,” he insists. A recently published study shows that such weather events are more frequent in March and April. A similar event in March 2016 saw more than 240 millimeters of rain fall on Dubai in a few hours – comparable to current rainfall.

Morten Ambaum from the University of Reading confirms: “These extreme rain events may become more extreme due to climate change.” “Climate scientists have been warning for years that a warmer climate would lead to more extreme events like this, and in fact we're seeing it all around us right now.” (tab)