Russia’s arsenal is at its peak, but it runs on debt. Financial analysts suspect that Putin is overstating his economic resources.
MOSCOW – “We talked about it all the time: ‘What do we do if there’s a war here? We can’t escalate this overnight. We’re in a bad position,'” says Joe Amadi, a former senior US military adviser quoted by the news agency. Reuters. According to the agency, miscalculation by NATO and the United States over the years has led to a severe shortage of grenades in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s invasion army is said to be doing well – perhaps despite the repeated bombing of Russian munitions depots.
Ukraine says it destroyed two ammunition depots in the south and west of Russia. The Ukrainian military said the destroyed depot near the town of Tigoretsk was one of Moscow’s “three largest ammunition depots”. The fire, caused by falling debris, ignited the explosives and then spread to surrounding settlements, which is why more than 1,000 residents had to be evacuated, explained the governor of Russia’s Krasnodar region, Venjamin Kondratiev. Later, in images posted online, plumes of smoke were seen in the sky and sirens wailing were heard near the town of Tikhoretsk, population 50,000.
Are drone strikes on depots helping in Ukraine war? In the short term, this is probably the wrong judgment
Another ammunition depot was hit in the village of Oktyabrsky in western Tver region, the Ukrainian military said. There was also a fire. Drones may have other targets besides depots. However, the question remains to what extent Ukraine can benefit from these attacks or collateral damage. Not much in the short term, analysts suspect.
“Soldier pay, ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for fallen and wounded soldiers all contribute to GDP. Simply put, the war against Ukraine is now the main engine of Russian economic growth.”
However, the Estonian intelligence chief thinks the Russian supplies will dry up by the end of the year — after all, Colonel Andz Kiwiselk speculated to Estonian radio late last year that “Russia still has four million artillery shells. They could be used in low-intensity wars,” he said, which would last another year. .At the same time, the delivery of another 350,000 artillery shells from North Korea proves to him that Russia plans to continue its war against Ukraine for a long time.
Alex Orlov considers this to be an overly conservative assessment: actions taken by the Russian military and political leadership between 2014 and 2022 lead him to conclude that a protracted conflict could be a scenario that the Russian military and political leadership had already predicted. In the early 2010s, the magazine’s editor writes European Defense and Security.
Did Ukraine War End Arms Production? Putin’s regime has three advantages over the West
In parallel with the annexation of Crimea, various preparations were reportedly made in 2014 to prepare the economy for an escalating military conflict, Orlov says – for example, technological re-equipment of the defense sector, political agreements with friendly or neutral countries, and economic measures to increase stability and resilience, he writes. According to him, the Russian defense industry has three “decisive advantages” over the West.
In addition to seemingly inexhaustible reserves, above all there was a centralized administration and a preference for arms over other economic sectors. “Russia is producing artillery shells three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and at a quarter of the cost,” the British broadcaster reported. Sky News The request was made in May, citing figures from Boston-based management consulting firm Bain & Company.
“Apples compared to oranges”? Only estimates of Russia’s supplies in the Ukraine war are possible
Their investigation, based on publicly available information, found that “Russian factories are expected to produce or remanufacture about 4.5 million artillery shells this year.” the sky reported. By contrast, NATO countries, including the United States, will have about 1.3 million missiles. Costs also vary considerably: according to Bain & Company, a standard 155 millimeter NATO artillery shell is equivalent to around 3,600 euros. In Russia, the cost of production for a standard artillery shell of the local armed forces with a capacity of 152 millimeters is equal to about 900 euros.
American broadcaster CNN Russia announced in March that it could produce about three million artillery shells a year, or about 250,000 artillery shells a month. These figures come from NATO intelligence estimates. However, the Russian news site tried Insider, Straighten the numbers again. According to this, American management consultants included other calibers in addition to the 152-millimeter bullets, which led to the distortion of the numbers. The The insider Bain & Company said they were comparing “apples to oranges”. Kyiv Post reported.
Attacks at the end? Russia needs at least four million artillery shells per year
According to calculations by think tank Royal United Service Institute (RUSI). Russia permanently needs 5.6 million artillery shells to maintain its current offensive momentum and quickly end the war in Ukraine: “To achieve its goal of achieving significant territorial gains by 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense has an industrial need” of about four million 152 mm in 2024 and 1.6 million 122 Production or procurement of mm artillery shells has been determined,” write RUSI editors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds.
There is no sign of economic fatigue, especially on the Russian side. Economists are also divided on this issue. There was an opinion magazine in April Conversation Reports suggest that the Russian economy is so completely dominated by the war in Ukraine that its regime cannot afford to win or lose.
Can economic losses be sustained? Putin continued to transition to a war economy
Like Renaud Foucault Conversation Released, Russia’s public spending reached record levels, but the war consumed about 40 percent of the state budget. Last year, total military expenditure was ten percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). “Soldier pay, ammunition, tanks, aircraft, and compensation for fallen and wounded soldiers all contribute to GDP. “Simply put, the war against Ukraine is now the main engine of Russian economic growth,” writes Foucault.
By comparison, NATO countries have for years argued for a credible defense budget of two percent of GDP for their partners – even Germany has long been below this. The class leader in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is Poland with four percent, followed by the United States.
Can the production war with Putin be won? The result is uncertain
the sea CNN NATO considers the Russian war machine to be irrevocably ahead of NATO; According to a high-ranking NATO source, Russia operates its artillery factories “around the clock” in alternating twelve-hour shifts. CNN writes 3.5 million Russians currently work in the armaments industry, down from at least a million before the war. In addition, Russia also imports munitions: Iran delivered at least 300,000 artillery shells last year – “probably more,” the military said loudly. CNN — and North Korea has delivered at least 6,700 ammunition containers containing millions of projectiles.
So Russia has been quoted as saying that “it has put everything it has into action.” CNN Secret Service Agent. Analysts suspect that the needs of the Russian military are even greater than the production of factories. As a result, meaningful victories for Russia on the battlefield are likely to be elusive. Also, the production capacity of Russian factories is low and will reach its limits by 2025.
Accordingly, repeated bombing of the depots would eventually affect the reach of the Russian invasion army. CNN As suggested by the statement of one NATO military officer: “We are currently in a war of production.”
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