What happens to Elon Musk and electric cars if Tesla dies?

Tesla had a rough 2022 – to say the least.

everything from Economiel inflationto me Russian invasion of Ukraine One body blow after another has been dealt to the electric car maker – and the rest of the tech and auto industry in general. However, the recent actions of the company’s CEO, Elon Musk, are as follows his reluctant purchase of Twitter, They just dragged the beleaguered Tesla into more of the deep trenches of the financial crisis. In fact, Tesla has lost approx 70 percent of its market value throughout the year so far.

It’s a quick turnaround from just a year ago when, Its value is estimated at about $1 trillionLooks like you can do no wrong. some are Musk’s leadership questionedwhile others go further – speculating that this may just be the beginning of the end for Tesla.

There is no denying the impact the company has made in the production and sale of electric vehicles. After all, he’s done something that once seemed impossible: convince the public that electric vehicles are pretty cool, in fact. Now the old automakers are playing catch-up to get customers to buy their own over electric vehicles.

Tesla has revolutionized the way the world sees and drives electric vehicles — but with its back against the wall and the financial situation looking even more bleak due to the tweet, we may soon find ourselves in a situation where the biggest name in the game has gone belly up.

Let’s be clear: there is a fairly small chance of that happening…but what if it did?

How to make (and pop) the EV bubble

To understand the impact of Tesla’s disappearance on the future of electric cars, it’s important to wrap our minds around exactly how we got here.

“I give a lot of credit to Elon Musk. He almost single-handedly made electric cars glamorous and exciting,” Raghunathan “Raj” Rajkumar, a professor of electrical and computer engineering and autonomous vehicle researcher at Carnegie Mellon University, told The Daily Beast. And do the right thing for the planet.”

However, this was a double-edged sword. Musk wowed Tesla with lofty—if a bit unrealistic—boils and promises on Twitter. Refine an army of Elon Stanz Willing to go to war for him online to defend his companies from the smallest of disadvantages. Meanwhile, the cars eventually sold well. All of this resulted in the perfect combination to fuel the rise of Tesla’s stock into the stratosphere like so many SpaceX rockets.

But the value has always been poor at best. It’s not like other automakers will never make electric cars. Thus Tesla’s market capitalization became a bubble of epic proportions.

Musk himself was one of the people who stuck a needle — and ended up with the takeover of his favorite social media platform, Twitter.

“It was just complete nonsense,” Rajkumar added. “At the end of the day, business has to be a business. Sooner or later, the things that go up have to go down, and that’s what we see, and we will continue to see.”

There are also basic economic factors. Demand is low across the board due to the struggling economy. Plus, the market looks completely different than it did a year ago. Tesla isn’t the only horse in the race anymore. The electric car industry is a lot bigger now, and with the added competition, Musk is starting to feel the pressure that it’s only a matter of time.

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A world without Tesla

Given the profound impact of Tesla on the auto industry and consumer habits, there is really no doubt that it will have a profound negative impact on the future of electric vehicles.

“If Tesla collapses and they completely go out of business, I think there will be dancing in the streets at every giant [automaker] on the planet,” Sandy Monroe, an independent automotive engineer, consultant and industrial expert, told The Daily Beast.

Monroe is known for his famous crash reports that provide an incredibly detailed analysis of various vehicles. his glowing review Tesla Model Y in 2020 It resulted in not only his optimism about the company’s future but also electric vehicles in general. A few years ago, he predicted that electric vehicles would take shape More than 50 percent of all vehicles on the market by 2030. Due to Tesla’s success, he has updated this forecast to 2028.

However, Monroe admits that if Tesla goes bankrupt, no prediction will ever happen, and it will “definitely move away from electric vehicles.”

That’s because, to him, the downfall of Tesla would extinguish the proverbial fire under every legacy automaker’s asses to focus on new and emerging technologies — and instead motivate them to revert to older technologies. There is no longer a drive to build new factories and devote so many of their resources to research and development of batteries, charging stations, and electric motors. Even regulators would have much less incentive to make the change to the country’s transportation and energy infrastructure.

In general, we will see a return to greenhouse gases that consume a lot of gases naturally. “If Tesla goes out of business, you watch how fast the Keystone pipeline goes,” Monroe added.

Rajkumar’s assessment is not that bad. He believes that the technologies and innovations championed by Tesla will eventually stick around. After all, consumers already want electric vehicles more than ever before —This number is only expected to grow. Car companies see this, too, and are willing to take advantage of it.

“The global auto industry is focusing on electric vehicles now, and many companies are publicly announcing that they will switch to an all-electric line of products. I don’t think it will stop anytime soon,” Rajkumar said. However, he acknowledges that it is not clear if many will Some of the targets set by automakers are realistic due to inadequate charging infrastructure and the slow rate of adoption of electric vehicles by consumers in general.

The only real winner that will emerge from Tesla’s death will be China. The country is already making concerted efforts towards electrification of transportation infrastructure, with targets being met 40 percent of all vehicles Domestically sold to be electric vehicles by 2030, and have enough charging stations for service More than 20 million vehicles.

This could cause a kind of tortoise-and-hare geopolitical situation, Monroe said, in which China plays catch-up and soon gets far ahead of the Western world, eventually eclipsing a sleepy US with technologies like electric vehicles that will be vital to our collective future.

“China will survive,” Monroe explained. He added that we may get to the point where the US has relatively few EVs because we have been so focused on short-term gains.

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Tesla will die another day

The future may look somewhat uncertain for Tesla – but it is likely to survive the current downturn. Sure, it may not reach the trillion-dollar peak it made last year (at least, for a while), but it probably will.

“There’s no way Tesla could lift its belly,” Monroe said. “It just doesn’t happen.” He added that there are two main factors behind the company’s continued leadership.

The first is actually musk. While his Twitter antics might upset many (Tesla stock investors included), there’s no denying that he helped revolutionize and champion the industries the world will depend on more in the future: electric cars and space travel. If he can pull himself away from the social media albatross that has been wrapping around his neck, he may be able to help usher Tesla through a crowded electric car market quickly and well beyond 2030.

Monroe said the second is children. Yes, children. He believes that babies — more than any other market indicator, stock trend, or McKinsey advisor — accurately point the way to the future of things like cars and, by extension, Tesla.

“If you talk to children, they will suddenly understand what they don’t like,” he said. “I don’t like the smell of gasoline. I don’t like the black smoke coming from the car. I want to do more for the environment. That’s why I don’t think Tesla will leave.”