Ukraine’s progress undermines Putin’s image as ‘Mr. Security’

Kursk.

It was one of the first words I wrote and spoke as a BBC reporter.

In 2000, I reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine in the icy waters of the Barents Sea, in which one hundred and eighteen divers were killed.

Vladimir Putin has only been president for half a year. I still remember Russian TV channels criticizing him for his handling of the disaster.

This week marks 24 years since the sinking of the K-141 Kursk submarine. And once again, the word Kursk fills my dispatches from Russia. This time from the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched their surprise invasion and seized territory nine days ago.

Same word.

But Russia 2024 is very different from Russia 2000.

But this time, there is no mention of criticism of President Putin on Russian television; no hint of how he makes decisions; no suggestion that his invasion of Ukraine led to this dramatic moment. But on the other hand, the Kremlin has had a quarter-century to impose tight control over Russian media and the messages they broadcast.

But will these events negatively affect Vladimir Putin?

It’s a question I’ve been asked several times over the past two and a half years:

• In 2022, when Ukraine sank the warship Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet
• Once again, a few months after the rapid withdrawal of Russian forces from northeastern Ukraine.
• And again in 2023 during the Wagner mutiny, when armed mercenaries were heading towards Moscow – a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority.

President Putin has come through all of this seemingly unscathed. He will be confident of overcoming this latest challenge.

But the thing is, Wagner’s rebellion ended in one day.

The Ukrainian attack on Russian territory has been going on for more than a week. The longer it goes on, the more pressure will be placed on the Russian leadership and the more damage will be done to President Putin’s authority.

Over the two and a half decades he has been in power, Mr. Putin has succeeded in cementing the image of “Mr. Security” in the minds of the people.“The only man in this vast country who can keep the Russians safe and secure.

The so-called “special military operation” (a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) was presented to the Russian people as a means of strengthening Russia’s national security.

Two and a half years into this war, there is no sign of “safety and security” here.

There are more NATO troops on Russia’s border, Sweden and Finland have joined NATO; Russian cities are being regularly attacked by Ukrainian drones; and now Ukrainian soldiers are seizing Russian territory.

By his choice of language, Vladimir Putin is trying to show the Russian people that there is no need to panic.

When referring to the Ukrainian incursion, Putin avoided using the word “invasion.” Instead, he spoke of “the situation in the border area” or “the events taking place.” The Kremlin leader also called the Ukrainian attack a “provocation.”

What will the Russian president do next?

Don’t expect him to pick up the phone and call Kiev. Russian officials have made it clear that in the wake of the Ukrainian offensive they have decided to shelve the idea of ​​peace talks.

No large-scale negotiations were planned.

Indeed, Vladimir Putin’s leader this week declared exactly what his goal is: “…to drive the enemy out of Russian territory.”

Saying is one thing, doing is another. Despite the deployment of reinforcements to the Kursk region, the Russian army has not yet been able to regain control of this part of Russia.

As I was walking past the Kremlin on Thursday morning, I stopped in my tracks.

As workers were setting up the seats and screens for an event, Edith Piaf’s classic song No, I don’t regret it. (No, I don’t regret anything) was playing on a large video screen and echoing throughout Red Square.

It was a very surreal moment.

Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of remorse about launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

He doesn’t regret the decisions he’s made since then.

If his public statements reflect his current state of mind, he still believes there is only one possible outcome to this war: a Russian victory.