Ukraine War: In the hail of cruise missiles after the Kursk offensive

“Two glide bombs and one Shaheed kamikaze drone today,” says Mykola Dorianic. “It’s the least the Russians can do to attack us every day.”

The 57-year-old is the mayor of Kot, a small town northeast of Sumy not far from the Russian border, and is responsible for 13 towns. The entire region has come under increasing fire since the Ukrainian armed forces invaded the neighboring Kursk region of the Russian Federation on August 6 and captured some 1,000 square kilometers in the following weeks.

“The devastation is simply unimaginable,” Dorianic says. “Some places just don’t exist anymore.” The community leader’s home village, Kindrativka, has also been badly affected. “From the balcony of my house I can see the Russian positions across the border.”

6,500 people once lived in the countryside, but only about 1,000 remain. But the mayor and his wife don’t want to leave just yet, even if their lives are at risk. “Often there is no one else to take care of the elderly,” Dorianic says. He recently suffered a stroke, but instead of being hospitalized, he continues to help.

Victoria and Katarina say goodbye to home and farming. The two young mothers fled Uhraidi in the early hours of the morning, less than ten kilometers from the Russian border. Now they register as internally displaced persons at the refugee center in Sumi (about 260,000 people). “The shelling was so heavy that we had no choice but to bring our children to safety.” Two city social workers care for Victoria’s eight-year-old son and Katerina’s two-year-old daughter in the playroom while the mothers fill out paperwork.

The Ukrainian government pays one-time financial assistance equal to 240 euros for each member of a family, regardless of age. Mattresses, blankets, hygiene products and food packages are also available. In total, nearly 37,000 people living in Sumy Oblast have been evacuated so far, including more than 6,400 children. The evacuations continue after local authorities on September 30 ordered all children accompanying their parents to leave a 10-kilometer zone along the border.

“Refugees are not arriving as much as they were in the last two months,” said Ina Klimenko, head of the aid center. More refugees are arriving every day, but the number cannot be compared to August and September. “We had about 350 people every day and literally had to work around the clock,” says the 45-year-old. “Of course, people were afraid of fighting on the border.”

According to the Ukrainian government, the Kursk offensive was a preemptive strike to prevent an imminent Russian invasion of the Sumy region. The offensive was successful, but in retaliation Russia attacked the Ukrainian border areas and the city of Sumy – on a much larger scale than before. “We are shot at in Sumi every day,” says Klymenko. “Glide bombs, Shahed drones, and even in daylight, this rarely happened.” However, the head of the center is relieved: “Oh, the Russian invasion will be very bad on their desks.” The great, long hall nodded in agreement.

The Kursk operation was a surprise attack. International experts and military officials were impressed by the tactics of the Ukrainian armed forces. The trade magazine “Foreign Policy” wrote: “The Ukrainian Kursk offensive was a turning point in the war.” Even Russian soldiers captured as prisoners of war in Kursk speak of the Ukrainians’ “excellent planning and organization.” “We have no chance, our commanders did not prepare us for such an enemy attack,” Sergei, a 38-year-old lieutenant in the Russian army in a Ukrainian prison, told WELT.

But anyone who talks to Ukrainian soldiers hears critical voices: They consider Kiev’s strategy risky, especially given the dire situation on the Eastern Front. The Russian army is slowly but steadily capturing new areas, such as Kubyansk in the north and especially near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

“We are invading Russia, which at first glance is wonderful,” some soldiers fighting in the Pokrovsk region told WELT in an interview. “But it would have been nice if reinforcements had been sent here in the end.”

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kursk offensive was the “first stage” of his “victory plan” aimed at forcing the Russian Federation to the negotiating table next year and implementing a “fair peace”. He presented the plan to the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday, which Zelenskyj promoted in US and European capitals in September.

The “success plan” consists of seven points, three of which are secret. Increase pressure on Russia at the military, economic and political levels. Calculation: Russian territories in Kursk captured by Ukraine will serve as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations for territories occupied by Moscow.

Zelensky has now officially announced that he will intensify attacks on targets in the Russian Federation, possibly using long-range weapons supplied by the West, something his allies have so far refused to do. According to rumors from Ukrainian military sources, Kiev wants to expand its ground operations to other Russian regions. On the one hand, it will increase ‘trading goods’ and at the same time “lead to a change in mood and protests in Russia,” presidential adviser Michajlo Podolczak said in a recent interview with WELT AM SONNTAG. People in Russia “suddenly experience this war and realize how terrifying it is.”

“With the Kursk offensive, we showed our allies what we can do,” says Major Vitaly Olegovich of the 61st Mechanized Brigade, which was part of the Kursk offensive formation. The 30-year-old headed the brigade’s command center during the operation. “We were the second group to cross the Russian border after the 80th Airborne Regiment,” reports Olekovich, hailed as “Hero of Ukraine” in the first year of the war.

A total of 60 armored personnel carriers and troop transports, as well as 15 tanks and 15 other vehicles were deployed in the squadron. “We are tasked with preventing enemy attacks from the northeast,” Olegowitsch said. “But we got a new order and had to clean up Sutja.” The small town of over 5,000 people is located about 15 kilometers inside Russia. “It lasted more than a week, and a month later we still found the hidden Russians.”

The campaign was meticulously planned, says the young officer. The threat would have destroyed enemy tanks and artillery positions before the Ukrainian units could begin their coordinated advances. Despite the success, Olegowitsch was not satisfied. “If we had Western weapons systems we could have been twice as fast.”

Most of the 61st Brigade has Russian-made weapons. “The 80th Brigade, which had Western tanks and armored vehicles and artillery, had to wait for us at Suja instead of advancing,” says the major. “She may have reached the city of Kursk.”

The 61st Brigade is stationed in the Kursk region and defends the occupied territory. “We repulsed the Russian counterattack and are expanding our defensive positions,” Olegovich says. “We remain aware of the enemy’s territorial gains on the Eastern Front.” The commander’s statement is succinct: “According to my information, Russian successes are limited and will not lead to any decisive changes.”

Back at Sumi Refugee Center. An hour after registration, Katarina and Victoria and their children are already on their way to their new accommodation. You will stay in one of the many student hostels on the university’s Faculty of Agriculture’s large campus on the outskirts of the city. The five-story, pre-Soviet-era building already houses 113 people. The kitchen and toilet are shared on one floor, while the laundry room is in the basement.

“I have to hurry,” Mayor Dorianic suddenly says goodbye in the conversation. He wants to come home before nightfall. Because Russian drones hover in the air looking for targets. “I drive at 130 km/h because bad things can go 110 km/h.” He wants to have a quiet dinner with his wife – even considering the noise of the explosions.

Alfred Hackensberger Since 2009 WELT has reported from more than a dozen war and crisis zones. Mainly from Near and Middle Eastern countries such as Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but more recently from Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine.