Troops on the Danube?: Mysterious Putin ships cause concern in Moldova

Troop movements on the Danube?
Mysterious Putin ships in Moldova cause concern

October 24, 2024 at 2:49 pm

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The first round of elections in Moldova is over — a result the Kremlin doesn’t like. In early November, a pro-EU candidate and a pro-Russia representative will compete in a runoff. Above all boils down to a potential escalation encouraged by Moscow. A small harbor can play a role in this.

Vessels from Russia that are said to be calling at the Moldovan Danube port of Giurgiulesti are raising awareness among inspectors. Although nothing is known about the cargo of the cargo ship – it could be harmless goods – Olya Korbut of the think tank for European Policy Analysis recently warned. He speaks of the Kremlin’s “obsession” with “cover operations.” Moscow may be preparing to intervene further in the small country.

Pro-European candidate Mia Sandu won the first round of the recent presidential election in Moldova. It also voted to incorporate the EU curriculum into the constitution. Sandhu accused Russia of attacking freedom and democracy by buying hundreds of thousands of votes. A run-off between him and pro-Russian socialist Alexander Stoyanoglou, who came in second place, will be held on November 3. There are fears that if Chandu wins again, he risks being encouraged by Russia.

Andrij Klymenko, a Russian journalist living in Ukraine, has been warning of such a situation for months. He is the head of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, and in early October five ships reportedly sailed from Russian ports across the Danube to the Moldovan port of Giurgiulesti.

Klymenko accused Moscow of trying to create an “opposition ground”, meaning an anti-European agenda, in Moldova. He recalled that Russia allowed special forces from the mainland to come to Sevastopol in an old bulk carrier after pro-European Maidan demonstrations in Ukraine ahead of the February 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Nothing comparable happened in Moldova, despite the pro-European Maia Sandu winning the first election. However, it missed out on an outright majority, which is why there will soon be a runoff election that will bring the tiny country back to the center of global public opinion — and possibly in Russia’s efforts to exert influence.

Then a possible connection Transnistria

There is also the possibility that Moscow could use the mysterious ships to support its hard-to-reach troops stationed through the port of Gyurkiulesti in the breakaway Moldovan province of Transnistria. Analyst Olya Korbut writes that there is a direct rail link from Giurgiulesti to Transnistria.

Russia is reportedly struggling to replace the officer corps and modernize the equipment of its 1,500-strong force in the region. Officials have been denied passage through Moldova since 2015, and an alternative land route was closed in 2022 amid angry protests from Moscow, writes Gorbat.

The route through the port of Giurgiulesti has reportedly become an option for Russia, as it is protected by international maritime law. So it is not possible to search for cargo through neighboring Romania or Ukraine. The port of Giurgiulesti is a free port and owned by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. It is Moldova’s only access to the sea.

The Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies called for action in early October. Special regulations must be followed to search for Russian ships in Jurkielesti on the Romanian and Ukrainian sides of the Danube. “The high level of professionalism of the naval forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the successful cooperation with Romania and Bulgaria on the grain corridor have shown what is possible,” writes Gorbat.