The Biden administration overestimated job growth in the second quarter by a million: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Biden administration Exaggerate the number of jobs created in the United States during the second quarter by more than one million, according to a report Issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Fed report found that only 10,500 new jobs were created between March and June.

This result stands in stark contrast to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimated that there were 1.12 million new jobs added between March and June of 2022.

Economists at the Regional Central Bank of Philadelphia published their report last week compiling data from unemployment insurance payments.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its estimates “include more comprehensive and accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment sample data from the BLS reports” that are released monthly on a time-to-date basis.

The Biden administration may have exaggerated the number of jobs created in the second quarter of 2022, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
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The regional central bank said its “revised estimates” are released “five months later with a more complete picture” than those provided by the BLS’s “Current Employment Survey” (CES).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were created during the second quarter of this year, but the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia said the number was actually 10,500.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were created during the second quarter of this year, but the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia said the number was actually 10,500.
Getty Images

One expert told The Post that the stark discrepancy in the numbers could be explained by “the use of different methods of data collection and analysis”.

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects its data through surveys of employers and households, while the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia relies on data on unemployment insurance payments,” Mina Tadrus, CEO of Tadrus Capital, told The Post.

“It is also possible that there are differences in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations when determining what counts as a new job.”

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“The significant difference in their findings highlights the need for caution when interpreting and using economic data to inform decision-making,” Tadros told The Post.

Economists said so A series of sharp hikes by the Federal Reserve in interest rates It was mainly based on the BLS’s job growth figures, which complicated the central bank’s efforts to control hyperinflation.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration has been “lying to the American people about our economy to support their failed agenda.”

“Million jobs wrong,” Scott tweeted last Friday.

The senator demands to see the head of the BLS.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said it obtained data from statistics on unemployment insurance payments.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said it obtained data from statistics on unemployment insurance payments.
AP

CES surveys about 131,000 businesses and government agencies representing about 670,000 job sites across the United States, according to the BLS website.

But QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” because it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” conducted five months after the relevant quarter, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

“Our primary measurement process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process as we do not have access to all of the data used by the BLS,” the Philadelphia Fed said when describing its methodology.

“Therefore, we accept the CES’s benchmark estimates for the BLS as the baseline employment level for each state.”

“Once we release QCEW data for periods beyond the most recent CES benchmark estimate, we release our early benchmark estimate,” the Philadelphia Fed added.

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