Dockworkers went on strike across the eastern United States and the Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
A strike by nearly 45,000 workers could “hurt economic growth and boost inflation” but only if the strike is prolonged, Diego Anzoategui, an economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
“While Rails has already temporarily suspended service and freight rates have temporarily increased, we believe transportation impacts should be reasonably limited unless there is an extended business interruption,” Anzoategui wrote.
He added that food and beverages will likely see the largest price increases due to the strike.
In addition, a strike may affect economic data readings. Goldman Sachs’ economic team estimates that a 10-day strike could cause GDP to decline by 0.2 percentage points in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, workers remaining on strike until October 12 will likely impact the October jobs report.
“If the strike continues through the reference period, it will directly impact October payroll growth by 45K, but the impact will later reverse at the end of the strike,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Jessica Rendels wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. Night.
Given the Fed’s focus on the labor market slowdown, there is debate among economists about whether or not the weak October jobs report caused by the strike will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
“The Fed tends to look at short-term volatility caused by strikes,” Morgan Stanley’s economic team claimed. But Renaissance Macro’s head of economics, Neil Dutta, said the hard hit to the October jobs report due to the strike and a recent hurricane in the southeast would be difficult to overlook given other signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
“Yes, these issues may be temporary and will show up in the institutions survey more than the household survey, but I don’t think the Fed should ignore them given the balance of risks,” Dutta wrote. “Why risk solving inflation?”
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