Radical progressive constitution: Chile becomes a laboratory again

Three years ago, decades of discontent erupted on the streets of Chile. Now the people are voting on the constitution, which is intended to change the text from military dictatorship. Visions are great, so are fears. After today’s vote, almost anything can happen.

Images circulating on social networks and flashing across television screens just before the finals weekend were images of violence. In the heart of Santiago de Chile, on the wide sidewalk of Central Alameda, about ten youths approach an elderly man and begin beating him. He falls to the ground and they kick him. The man’s name is Simon Boric, a press officer at the state Universidad de Chile. He has minor injuries. Farther away, about 30 masked men set up barricades, threw Molotov cocktails and clashed with police. They want to achieve better educational conditions.

About 200 meters away, Simone’s brother Gabriel Boric, 36, has been sitting in the presidential palace since last March. breast order, as the former student leader has repeatedly emphasized, depends on what happens to the new constitution intended to change the legal text from the military dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet. The entire country of Chile will decide on this in a referendum today, September 3rd. As with many things in Chile, public education, which is largely privatized, needs to be strengthened.

Over the course of several months, a Constituent Assembly created a new Garda Magna. The former is a symbol of military dictatorship, oppression and murder, a symbol to go. Most agree with that. But not about how detailed the new text should be.

The two incidents in the center of Chile’s capital could be two of many signs of what Chile has in store in the coming months. Once again, the country becomes a political laboratory, but this time it is not run by American economic liberals from the North, known as the “Chicago Boys”. But the aim of Boric’s left-wing coalition was to quickly establish a welfare state based on the European model, according to Chileans. After all, the neoliberal economic model is based on the unequal prosperity enjoyed by the common people, who, however, receive relatively little overall.

The previous constitution is the basis for this. It envisages a narrow state as a pure guardian of rules that should interfere as little as possible in social and economic affairs. Basic issues including access to drinking water, environmental protection, health system and express rights of indigenous peoples are regulated differently in the new text. Critics predicted an economic downturn due to the new constitution. On the other hand, proponents believe that a more responsible state is essential to meet the demands of climate change and social problems.

A lot of work for the future

Water, for example, has so far been privatized in Chile and its rights are largely in the hands of commercial exploitation companies. The right to access to drinking water is not a constitutional right, but to possess it. At the same time, since 2010, the country has been getting drier due to the so-called mega drought. Due to the shortage of drinking water in all parts of the country for many years, drinking water is supplied through tanker trucks at a huge cost.

In 2019, decades-old anger about social inequalities, authoritarian tendencies in democratic institutions, the pain of unhealed wounds from Pinochet’s coup era, and its legacy have intensified. Unleashed on the streets of Chile. For months, people in Santiago have fought street battles with the police. At one point the government called a referendum in which 80 percent decided to create an entirely new constitutional text without the participation of elected politicians.

Before this, the “Estelido Social” (“Social Explosion”), depending on who was talking about it, was described as a disgusting laboratory of Chilean neoliberalism, where the people were enslaved in favor of an elite according to all the rules of capitalist art. or respectable As a model country in South America, with a free market economy and a small state, entered the circle of distinguished industrial nations and became the only member of the OECD on the continent. There is nothing in between.

If the people of Chile accept the new constitution, the government and Congress must amend the entire table of laws accordingly. The judiciary is also likely to be heavily involved in this process. Among other things, the definition of Chile as a pluralistic country is controversial. About 13 percent of Chileans define themselves as indigenous. The draft constitution provides for autonomy rights including their own jurisdiction.

The south of the country has been under a state of military emergency – once again – since last year, where the Mapuche tribe does not want to recognize government agencies and wants to drive forestry companies off their former lands. There are radical groups among the Mapuche who want their former territories to secede from the government in Santiago. This creates fear among non-tribals living in the regions and businesses operating there.

The topic is politically very explosive. Most recently, the police arrested a well-known tribal leader, Hector Laithul, on charges of timber theft, conspiracy and resisting the authorities. He is a symbol of armed resistance in the former Mapuche heartland. Earlier, a minister who tried to negotiate with Laithul through private channels had to resign.

What happens after that?

In the last poll, opponents of the constitution were ahead by about 10 percent. The Constituent Assembly was dominated by leftist and progressive groups. This may bother you now, as conservatives tend to pick out individual points and criticize them harshly, sometimes completely distorting them. In addition, many moderate voters do not feel represented, the center-left civic organization “Amarillos Por Chile” under literature professor and journalist Christian Warnken enjoys strong support; He recommends more modest, gradual changes.

During the first referendum in 2020, there was a strong mood of change and many older Chileans did not vote because of the pandemic. Participation was voluntary, with a 50 percent turnout. Voting is now mandatory, and pollsters expect a voter turnout of over 60 percent. Young Chileans in particular want change because they feel stifled and marginalized by old social structures and elites. The outcome will depend on how many 18-30 year olds turn out and whether many older voters who oppose the new text turn out to vote.

Mathematical Computational Models of Two Concept Research Institutes forecast However, during the last poll, “approbo”, meaning victory for supporters. In the first referendum and presidential elections, their predictions based on interactions in social networks, among other things, were much closer to the latter results than conventional opinion polls.

The result could be very close. If the new constitution is adopted, there will be an outcry among conservatives, and then protests or riots. The “Rechazo” camp, if the rejectionist wins, will have to create an entirely new text, or revise the first version. Additionally, in 2019, there should be major unrest and street fights. This leaves Chile facing another acid test. Because violence like the Pinochet regime in the streets in 1973 or 2019 will lead to political changes in Chile.