Things are looking violent in the Kremlin between Vladimir Putin and Wagner boss Prigozhin. According to US think tank ISW, the conflict has now reached its peak.
KIEV – Months of fighting over Bagmut continues. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary unit, spoke of the “very difficult” situation. Wagner mercenaries play an important role especially in Bagmut. But the conflict between Vladimir Putin and Prigogine around the Kremlin has been simmering for weeks and has now reached its climax. This is what the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in a March 12 report on the Ukraine conflict.
American experts believe that this opportunity is being used to deliberately position Wagner troops in the contested area, as Russia is not making progress in the Battle of Pakmut. According to ISW, the aim was to “weaken Prigozhin and thwart his ambitions to gain greater influence in the Kremlin”. The report notes that the Russian Defense Ministry increasingly restricted Prigozhin’s ability to recruit criminals.
Wagner-Kremlin Clash: Putin Blocks Prigozh’s Recruitment
The 61-year-old, also known as “Putin’s chef,” had been recruiting prison inmates for months to serve in the Ukraine war, promising to pardon them on their return to Russia if they survived the fighting in Ukraine. In early February, however, Prigozhin announced the end of prison recruitment under pressure from the Ministry of Defense in Moscow. In the absence of new prisoners being recruited, the Russian mercenary force would face difficulties according to British estimates.
The Ministry of Defense in London indicated on Monday (March 13th) that Moscow had deprived the Wagner boss of recruiting mercenaries in prisons. Half of the prisoners used were killed in heavy fighting. A nationwide recruitment campaign did not cover the losses. On Friday (March 10), Prigozhin announced the opening of 58 recruitment centers in 42 Russian cities. “If the embargo continues, Prigozhin will be forced to scale back the scope or intensity of Wagner’s operations in Ukraine,” a UK official said. It seems that is only the tip of the iceberg.
Escalation in Putin-Prygozhin standoff: “Wagner troop removal” in Bagmut
According to ISW, the Russian Defense Ministry is “currently prioritizing the removal of Wagner troops from the battlefields in Bagmut”. The Wagner-Kremlin conflict could slow the pace of progress in the region.
The American think tank cited Prigozhin’s “relentless smear campaign” against high-ranking figures in the Russian military, beginning in May 2022, as the origin of the conflict. For example, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. American experts now suspect an attempt by the military leadership to “revenge Prigozhin”.
In the past, Prigozhin has repeatedly claimed decisive military victories in the war in Ukraine. He makes no secret of his view that his fighters are far superior to the official Russian military — and repeatedly takes on Russia’s establishment. More recently, Wagner has publicly criticized boss Putin. The Kremlin has cut off communications: Putin is no longer answering the phone.
Did Wagner boss Brigoshin overestimate Putin’s confidence?
ISW suspects that Prigogine overestimated “Putin’s confidence in the Wagner forces”. He sought to replace Russia’s military and political leadership with members of his own ranks. According to the American think tank, the Wagner boss’s military-political ambitions would have worried Putin.
The Kremlin leader may have seen Prigozhin’s repeated criticism of the Russian military’s war effort as “disloyal.” He may have seen Prigozhin’s “aggressive self-promotion” at the expense of Shoigu and Gerasimov — loyal to Putin and his regime for years — as a threat. According to ISW, Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense may use Prigozhin as a “scapegoat” once the fighting over Pakmut reaches its peak.
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