Before the US election in November, the polls should reflect the mood of the electorate. It’s clear: Trump and Harris will have a neck-and-neck race.
Washington, DC – Campaigning is in full swing ahead of the 2024 US elections. Last week, there was a televised battle between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican counterpart, Donald Trump. This scenario also influenced polling trends. One thing is certain: it will be a head-to-head race.
“More” ahead of US election: New polls show good chances for Harris in race against Trump
Harris’ lead in the national poll increased to 2.9 points. Before last week’s televised debate, the Democrats were leading Trump by 2.2 percentage points, poll analyst Nate Silver said on his blog. Silver Bulletin. “One could argue — one could argue! — that it’s a little too conservative,” Silver wrote on Tuesday (Sept. 17). According to some polls in recent days, Harris is still clearly ahead of Trump.
Positive polls have led to Harris’ chances in the Electoral College — that is, the number of voters he can reach through electoral victories in states — increasing significantly. According to Silver, the vice president has a 38.4 percent chance of winning the majority on the day of the debate. Currently it is 43.5 percent. Trump’s chances, however, have waned. On the day of the debate, the former president still had a 61.3 percent chance of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes; Now it stands at 56.2 percent.
The split in the Electoral College will again move “in a 50/50 direction,” Silver said. Despite Harris’ “national surge,” the pollster warned there was a lack of high-quality turnout in individual states.
US Election 2024: A head-to-head race between Harris and Trump is underway
The vote count in individual states also gives Harris reason to be happy right now. Selzer & Co. According to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, Donald Trump is currently at 47 percent in Iowa compared to 43 percent for Harris. This is a state that the former president won comfortably twice. Out loud CNN Iowa may not play a decisive role in November’s U.S. election, but narrow poll numbers in the Republican-dominated state are a good sign for Harris — especially given neighboring Wisconsin’s comparable demographic makeup.
Harris leads Trump by an average of four percentage points in Wisconsin, according to polls by Marquette University, CBS News/YouGov and CNN/SSRS. The former president could still hold on to this lead, but the results still give hope for Harris’ chances in six other swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. At current values, Harris and Democrats are doing better than the previous Selzer poll from June — when Joe Biden was still in the race. Trump was leading by 18 points.
Close race between Harris and Trump: Election won’t be decided until November
A lot can happen between the polls and the actual US election on November 5th. These studies were conducted before the second assassination attempt on Trump. The impact of the attempted attack and the reactions of Trump, Harris and other politicians have yet to be taken into account. Rhetoric, blame and topic change can ultimately have a decisive impact on the outcome of an election. (hk)
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