MLB trade deadline report: Targets and teams to track in murky market

We’re exactly five weeks away from the MLB trade deadline (it’s July 30 this year), so once a week we’ll round up the latest deadline news — rumors, buyers/sellers and (as they start) (to happen) actual trades — to keep you updated. Constant knowledge of the trade market.

This year’s deadline may be “all or nothing” — or, to be more precise, “nothing and then all.” With the emergence of a third-place finish in each league, it has become more difficult to determine whether a team will be a buyer or a seller.

Let’s look at the National League for a prime example: In the old format (one Wild Card team per league, 1995-2011), the division leaders (Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies from left to right on your map) would currently make up the usual three playoff positions, with The Wild Card Braves round out the field of four. The rookie Cardinals will be on the outside looking back, after 3 1/2 games, with the Padres and a slew of other teams breathing down their necks.

In the new format, the Cardinals and Padres are currently above the cut, with Seven other teams Still legitimately in the mix. The Giants are the third worst team in the NFL, but they only have 3 games left.

And don’t forget: Both of last year’s World Series teams (Rangers, Diamondbacks) made the playoffs as Wild Card teams.

With more sites available (and with tanks now discouraged by… Draft new rules)More teams, you know, attempt To win, which is good for the sport! But in this case, it also means that only two National League teams (Rockies and Marlins) are clear sellers.

Of course it’s the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado’s deadline strategy has been murky over the past few years, and three of the Marlins’ top targets are either On the injured list (Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett) or underperforming (Josh Bell). Left-handed reliever Tanner Scott (1.64 ERA) He should remain a prime target, although his walk rate (6.3 per nine innings) is concerning.

Maybe it makes sense then to look to the American League, where the White Sox and Athletics are obvious sellers, and it looks like the Angels and Blue Jays should follow suit, with the Tigers on the bubble, after 6 1/2 games. From the wild card spot.

So let’s unpack what we learned this week about who’s chasing what, shall we?

News this week

• In a Q&A with Gene McCaffrey, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow didn’t commit to any direction, but acknowledged that the Red Sox have some depth in center field in the minor leagues that could help them meet their big-league needs at some point Delivery. The surprising Sox are currently 43-36, and their biggest needs appear to be another starting pitcher and — ironically — a shortstop.

• Also in need of promotion: the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles, both of whom lead their respective teams. Each team has lost several key players to season-ending injuries. The Braves are in a similar boat, as are the injury-plagued Houston Astros. But…are the Astros a playoff team? Their cold start might suggest otherwise, but they are 13-7 in June, and swept the Orioles over the weekend, so don’t count them out just yet.

• In the relief promotion market, the easy answer is this all The team could use a reliever or two, but the Padres stand out as a team to watch — because they need help and because president of baseball operations AJ Preller can’t be left alone with the phone when it’s trade season.

• On the offensive side, the Cubs could use a bat, and it wouldn’t hurt if it was someone who can play third base or shortstop (the Rockies’ Elias Diaz?) And on the subject of executives who like to trade, the Mariners have Jerry’s AL-West-leading shortstop Dipoto with a very good rotation in the beginning, but their bats performed poorly.

Check the target value of the trade

If the Blue Jays can’t right the ship, will they move Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? (David Richard/USA Today)

Let’s take a look at some of the names that have been floated as potential trading targets and see how they increase (or decrease) their respective markets.

• Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox): It seems like it should be a certainty that the dynamic quarterback will be on the move this year, but as our reporting team points out, some in the industry believe new Chicago GM Chris Getz may be overestimating Robert’s value — or at least be. Be careful not to sell low, as Robert is hitting just .198 (.768 OPS) this season. He’s making $12.5 million this year and will make $15 million next year, with options worth $20 million in 2026 and 2027. Additional years of control are nice, but with his injury history and mixed results this year, teams may refuse to overpay for him this year. Potential capital.

• LHP Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Sorry, yes, White Sox fans, you may want to avert your eyes. After pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in Monday Night’s final 3-0 loss to the Dodgers, Crochet is 6-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 94 1/3 innings. Potential suitors are: Anyone who needs to pitch, so… about 60 percent of the league.

• 1 BS Pete Alonso (Mets), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays): At the start of the season, it would have been ridiculous for either man to be on the market. Alonso may no longer be, as the Mets were 13-6 in June, jumping from third-worst to first among National League teams not currently in a playoff position. Toronto, on the other hand, continues to slide further and further into a failed season, at 35-43 – 7 1/2 games out of wild-card territory. Will they part ways with Guerrero? (Cubs take note: Ho Can Still playing third base.)

• RHP Jack Flaherty (Tigers): After a difficult post-trade period with the Orioles last year, Flaherty appears to have rebounded well in Detroit, other than a minor back issue earlier this month. He’s 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 108 in 83 1/3 innings, making him a desirable target in a market itching for starting pitching. As Cody Stavenhagen points out, Flaherty is eligible for a qualifying offer this offseason. If Detroit doesn’t trade him, they could offer him a QO, and if he signs elsewhere, they’ll get draft compensation. Which option is best? It depends on when Detroit thinks its competitive window will open.

• RHP Mason Miller, (A): The holy grail of bullpen additions, Miller is easily the best relief pitcher could He’ll be available this year, with 60 strikeouts and 13 walks in 34 2/3 innings. But the buzz around the industry is that franchisees are holding a king’s ransom. With the team moving to Las Vegas (over three years in Sacramento), it makes sense for them to aim to contend in 2028. Miller won’t join free agency until after the 2029 season, so Class A doesn’t Owns To trade him, but if someone blinks and pays a premium on expectations, that could set them up well for the future.

Go deeper

MLB Trade Deadline Watch: Contenders for White Sox scouts, Mason Miller’s value and more

First time, in a long time

Among the teams that could still push for a spot in the playoffs: recent punching bags Pittsburgh, Washington and Kansas City. None of the three are necessarily favorites to emerge as Wild Card teams this year, but they are all within 2 1/2 games of the final Wild Card spot.

Pittsburgh: With the arrival of Paul Skinnes (and the rise of Jared Jones), the Buccaneers are more exciting than they’ve been since…what, 2015? But their offense could use a boost, especially on the field.

*Bae was activated from the IL on Monday and optioned to Triple A. All stats through Sunday’s games.

Washington: As Jim Bowden points out, it may make more sense for the Nationals to be sellers than buyers this year, as they are a bit ahead of schedule in the competition, and have a few veterans on expiring contracts who could be dealt to bolster the system a longer stretch into the season. Next. But they’re just a game and a half away from a playoff spot, and for a fan base that’s seen some awful baseball since the World Series win in 2019, throwing in the towel is going to be tough — note the pun — He sells.

Kansas City: After a hot start, the Royals have come back down to earth a bit in recent weeks, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. Like Washington, they are a bit ahead of schedule after losing 106 games in 2023. If their recent slide extends into the coming weeks, one interesting story to keep an eye on could be how they handle Seth Lugo, who was… very Good this year (10-2, 2.42 ERA). He’s signed through 2025 (with a player option for 2026), so if the Royals think they’re on the verge of contention, it might make sense to keep him around. If they believe the window truly opens in 2026, he could be an exceptionally valuable trade chip.

Of course, they could also go on another hot streak and end up as buyers. In this case, the most logical shopping list might seem to be a bullpen and an outside bat.

What I’m watching over the next week

With players like Max Scherzer returning, will the Rangers be able to make a run? (Jim Cosert/USA Today)

• Texas Rangers: they finally They earned their first sweep of the season, dispatching the Royals in three games last weekend. This week they face the division-leading Brewers and Orioles. With players starting to return from the IL, this week could be a huge road trip for the defending champions.

• Houston Astros: Currently one game down in Texas and riding high after a sweep of Baltimore, this might be the Astros’ best chance to ride a wave of momentum out of Seller’s Alley before the deadline. Moreover, if they are Do Did you run, does that mean the rotation at first base is working or would it just be a green light to make a deal to solidify the position?

• Ben Rice (Yankees): New York’s playoff hopes are light-years ahead of Houston’s, but a similar question lingers: Can Rice, who was called up a week ago to fill in for the injured Anthony Rizzo, provide value at first base? Whether the answer is yes or no, I’d be interested in the follow-up question: What happens when Anthony Rizzo is ready to come off the IL?

• Reds/Pirates: This has happened some It’s about the NL wild card chase, but it’s more about the fact that Elly De La Cruz and Oneil Cruz are playing in the same game, and that’s always worth watching.

(Top photo by Mason Miller: Eakin Howard/Getty Images)