LDP elections: Japan’s next prime minister may be the first woman to lead the country

CNN
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Japan’s ruling party will elect its new leader on Friday, and the winner will become the country’s next prime minister.

Of the nine candidates, three frontrunners are competing in a very close race that is likely to end in a runoff.

The winner will take over leadership of the world’s fourth-largest economy at a time of rising costs of living, exacerbated by a weak yen and high inflation, as Japan faces increasing security challenges in the region and friction with its neighbors including China.

Among the favorites vying to lead the long-ruling and scandal-plagued Liberal Democratic Party is Sanae Takaishi, the conservative economic security minister who could become the country’s first female prime minister. Shinjiro Koizumi, a charismatic young surfer who comes from a popular political lineage; And former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is making his fifth and final attempt to hold this high position.

The conservative Liberal Democratic Party has governed Japan almost continuously since the party’s founding in 1955. Given its majority in the lower house, the LDP’s nominee will be approved by Japan’s parliament, when it convenes in October.

A general election is scheduled for next year, but the winning candidate could choose to call early elections before then. Some reports suggest this may happen even before the US presidential election in November.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not run after his surprise announcement last month that he would step down following a series of political scandals that fueled calls for his resignation.

The winner will be tasked with improving the image of the Liberal Democratic Party before that general election.

In recent months, the ruling party has been involved in one of the biggest political scandals in Japan in decades.

Two of the most influential factions of the Liberal Democratic Party have been accused of failing to properly declare their income and expenditures and, in some cases, allegedly redirecting political funds to lawmakers as bribes.

Scandals surrounding several high-ranking officials did not help, some of whom were accused of engaging in election law violations or making previous offensive comments against minorities.

Kishida tried to contain the damage, replacing a number of ministers last year and abolishing his party faction.

With the upcoming US presidential election, the new prime minister will manage Japan’s relations with a new American leader at a time of increasing security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly aggressive China and an aggressive North Korea.

The partnership with Japan has long been a key element of US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, and Kishida this year expanded defense cooperation between Tokyo and its key ally.

“It is safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi and Koizumi will do well, but I cannot say who will win the race among these three,” Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at the University of Tokyo, told Reuters. “I don’t think we’ll know until the last minute.”

Candidates

If Takaichi (63 years old) wins, it will be an important moment for Japan, where men continue to dominate politics and boardrooms.

But such a victory would not necessarily herald a new progressive era. The veteran politician is a staunch conservative on the party’s right wing and has promised to prioritize economic growth. She also opposed legislation that would allow married women to keep their maiden names, and described Margaret Thatcher, the former British Conservative leader, as a role model.

A protégé of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a supporter of his eponymous economic policies, she is similarly hawkish on security issues, favoring a review of the country’s pacifist constitution.

Takaishi’s visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine – which honors Japan’s 2.4 million war dead, including convicted war criminals – sparked protests from South Korea and China, victims of the country’s expansionist aggression during the first half of the twentieth century.

Its plans to boost the Japanese economy include lowering interest rates, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this year, and called for “strategic” fiscal spending to increase jobs and household income, according to Reuters.

Koizumi (43 years old) is the US-educated and charismatic son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is very popular. If elected president of Japan, he will be Japan’s youngest leader.

Koizumi has presented himself as a reformer – much like his father – and has promised to call early general elections. He said he would continue the economic policies of outgoing leader Kishida.

His critics pointed to his lack of experience in domestic politics and international relations and his economic plan, which is weak in detail.

But Koizumi’s stardom has made him very popular among the general public, especially among young voters and women.

He has supported legislation that could allow married women to keep their maiden names, and he supports women’s access to the imperial throne, which is not currently allowed in Japan. Koizumi made headlines when he became the country’s first cabinet member to take just two weeks of paternity leave, but it’s an important step as Japan’s work culture means many new fathers don’t take any leave.

Ishiba, 67, is a veteran politician who is serious about security issues. He said Japan should reduce its reliance on nuclear power in favor of renewable energy sources, and called for an Asian version of NATO’s security bloc to counter threats from China and North Korea.

In a political culture that prizes conformity and compliance, Ishiba has long been an outsider, willing to criticize and oppose his party. His willingness to speak out made him powerful enemies within the LDP, but endeared him to more grassroots members and the public.

He belongs to the more progressive wing of the conservative party.