A direct attack on Ukraine from Belarus is unlikely. Experts still warn about consequences before Donbass and Kursk
Kiev – Belarus has served as Russia’s base of operations in the Ukraine war since its major offensive in 2022. On Monday (August 26), Ukraine announced it would once again strengthen its border security because of the Belarusian dictator. Alexander Lukashenko Since late June, Ukraine has been massing forces along the border.
Lukashenko announced in mid-August that he would move “a third of the army” to the border. Even if an attack is unlikely, the Donbass or the Donbass could cost Ukraine vital resources Kursk-offensive are required.
ISW: Attack on Ukraine from Belarus “still unlikely”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, said on Monday that it was “still unlikely” that Lukashenko would want to attack Ukraine. Although Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, direct involvement in the conflict in Ukraine would involve many risks for the Belarusian dictator.
Belarus wants to provide support to Russia by deploying its forces. In this scenario, Lukashenko’s objective would be to extend the front line that the Ukrainians had to defend. However, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry sternly warned Belarus to respect the border. It said Ukraine would defend itself if attacked.
Tensions between Ukraine and Belarus after the Kursk attack
The offensive of the Ukrainian army in the Russian Kursk region has a certain temporal connection. This extended front forced Putin’s army to relocate some units from the Donbass to Kursk.
Russia responded as it always does when under military pressure in the Ukraine war: On Monday morning, Russia launched heavy airstrikes against civilian infrastructure across the country. According to ISW, the Belarusian troop deployment to the border is comparable to the troop deployments Lukashenko has already ordered for 2022 and 2023. Nothing happened then.
Military expert Reisner: Ukraine to transfer “tens of thousands of soldiers” to Belarus border
Nevertheless: “Ukraine cannot simply ignore this,” Austrian army strategist Col. Markus Reisner said in an assessment published by the military press office. “Tens of thousands of soldiers” should now be ready in Ukraine for the possible protection of the border with Belarus.
Reisner paints a bleak picture of Ukraine’s military situation: Kursk, Donbass or under Russian rocket fire. Putin’s forces will advance further near Pokrovsk in the Donbass. On the entire front in the Donbass, Russia continues to pressure Ukraine into a belligerent war. It is not yet clear whether the attempt to free Kursk will succeed. Reisner anticipated Ukrainian actions such as Kursk, which would aim to regain the initiative. However, Russia’s military is expected to swell to 700,000 soldiers by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Ukraine is having trouble mobilizing. (kb)
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