Welcome to the third edition of the 2023 MLB Pipeline Rookie Power Rankings. Each month, the Pipeline team votes for who we think will be the Rookie of the Year winner at the end of the season.
By the way, this last part is important: “At the end of the season.” We do not vote on who would win if the prizes were handed out today. We of course think very highly of the performance to date, but balance it with our expectations for the rest of the year. As the year goes on, the stats for the current season will become more important, and these predictions will fall out of the rankings.
Even though we’re repeating #1, ratings past #1 have shaken quite a bit over the past month. Here’s how the votes came out.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs (Previous Rank: 1)
What’s not to love about the guy who started the season as Pipeline’s No. 2 prospect? Carroll did a little bit of everything for the D snapback, with a .282/.369/.503 line, a solid strike zone command, and 14 steals in 16 attempts. He puts in counting stats as well as price stats, and we expect him to keep up. Honestly, it’s a very easy pick in the first position.
2. Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets (Previously Unrated)
Alvarez squabbled a bit upon his promotion, but he found the tool that has been his calling card throughout his career: strength. Alvarez is just mashed up over the past few weeks, with seven home runs in 15 games. This gives him eight on the season and a solid . 558 slugging percentage. That’s too good for anyone, never mind a 21-year-old catch.
3. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (previous rank: 5)
Consistently, steadily, Jung continues to strike and continues to climb the rankings. He’s now our leader among American League rookies thanks to his .283/.332/.505 streak for the rival Rangers. He’s already collected 11 homers and 35 RBI while also holding it as an effective defensive third baseman. It doesn’t have the wow factor of some of the names on this list, but if you hit the spot, it’ll stay on the list.
4. Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros (previous rank: 3)
Although he started the month of May with a few questionable walks, Brown has steady the ship with 27K for three walks over his last three innings. He hits innings, wins and strikeouts for one of the best teams in the league, has a potential pedigree, and we expect him to continue to perform. He was very close to Jung in the vote.
5. Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox (previous rank: 6)
Another consistent and effective producer, Yoshida hits average, hits moderately hard and has complete control of the strike area. He might be a bit overwhelmed because he played a lot of DH and wasn’t the smartest player when he hits the field, but as long as he keeps hitting he’ll have a shot at some hardware at the end of the year.
6. Taj Bradley, RHP, Rays (Previously Unrated)
If there’s one theme for this month’s rankings, it’s highly rated junior pitchers who gain starting rotation points. Three of the following four names fit this description. Bradley’s path was a little different from the next two, since he climbed up, went back to the mansion briefly, and came back up again. But he was always stellar for Tampa Bay, tallying 42 strikeouts for just five walks in six games. As Pipeline’s 16th potential customer, we expect him to maintain this level.
7. Bryce Miller, RHP, Mariners (Previously Unrated)
Miller’s numbers look a lot like Bradley’s, and we like him a lot. Like Bradley, he’s a hitter—three walks in 36 innings. He doesn’t crank the K quite as hard as Bradley, but he does go deeper in the games, with a very solid 6.0 innings per start. He’s our 58th candidate overall, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to produce.
8 (tie). Kodai Senga, RHP, Mets (previous rank: 7)
Senga, who of course broke his camp in the Mets’ rotation, is still a bit up and down, but effective overall. He was masterful hitting 12 Rays on May 17, but that was flanked by a pair of shaky starts. Unlike Bradley or Miller, his walk rate remains excruciatingly high, but like them he has a safe spinning spot in a postseason contender.
8 (tie). Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins (Previously Unrated)
And here’s our latest new entrant, and perhaps the most exciting one. Pérez is the MVP in baseball, ranking sixth in the most recent Pipeline Top 100 update. His cap is astronomical. He’s also barely 20 years old, and definitely less sure of the short term than Bradley or Miller. However, he has been effective if ineffective so far, allowing two or fewer runs in three of his four starts. We’d love to see him hit more shots and play deeper in matches, but his best is amazing.
10 – Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles (formerly ranked: 2)
We haven’t given up on Henderson, who despite his batting average of 199 does at least get some things right. He has 13 extra base hits and 28 walks in 48 games, which is nothing. However, it would be nice to start seeing him sing a few more base beats and hit a little less. We think it will, but based on the numbers so far, it’s the bottom half of the top ten rather than the top half.
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