Japanese elections are usually boring and static, but this snap was not so.
Dramatic voting follows a Political finance corruption scandal Which was revealed last year, implicating senior lawmakers and cabinet members from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, tarnishing its image and sparking public anger.
It was the perfect storm — a scandal that saw dozens of Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers investigated for misappropriating millions of dollars in political fundraising revenue, while families struggled with inflation, rising prices, stagnant wages and a stagnant economy.
In the end, angry and tired voters sent a strong message in Sunday’s vote, punishing the Liberal Democrats at the polls. It was a stunning blow: the party that had governed Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its single-party majority in the powerful House of Representatives.
But there was no clear winner either. The divided opposition has failed to emerge as a viable alternative when the public was looking for it.
Despite being badly damaged, the LDP still won more seats – 191 – than the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, with a final tally of 148.
This election seems to be about voters who are fed up with the party and politicians they view as corrupt and dirty. “They don’t want to bring a new leader into this region,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.
However, the fate of the old leadership is unclear. The LDP’s ruling coalition fell short of the halfway mark – 233 seats in the 465-member parliament – after its ally Komeito lost several seats, including its president’s seat.
Even with Komeito winning 24 seats, the LDP will not be able to muster a majority.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister earlier this month, said it was a “harsh judgement.” Winning a tight race for party leadership.
Voters “expressed their strong desire for the LDP to think and become a party that acts in line with the will of the people,” he said on Sunday.
The hope was that Ishiba, as leader, could save the LDP at the ballot box, which led to growing discontent and falling voting rates. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was forced to resign.
However, Ishiba took a gamble When early elections were announced less than a month ago – And it backfired.
He and his party underestimated the extent of popular anger and, crucially, their willingness to act on it.
In order to remain in power, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with the other parties it ran in the elections. It will do so from a position of great weakness, because it must negotiate and make concessions in order to survive.
It is difficult to overstate how rare this is, as the LDP has always enjoyed a secure and stable place in Japanese politics.
It has a long track record in governance – when the opposition took power in 1993 and 2009, things ended badly.
Since the LDP returned to power in 2012, it has managed to win every election, almost unchallenged. There has long been resignation about the status quo, and the opposition is still unconvincing for the Japanese people.
“I think we are [the Japanese] “They are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election.
“It is very difficult for us to challenge and bring about change. When the ruling party has changed once [and the opposition took over]”Nothing really changes in the end, which is why we tend to stay conservative.”
Fujisaki said she was initially unsure who to vote for, especially with the fundraising scandal looming over the LDP. But since she always voted for them, she said she would probably do the same this time too.
Although the main opposition party – the Christian Democrats – made significant gains, observers say these results are less about voters’ support for the opposition and more about their anger at the Liberal Democratic Party.
Despite voters’ desire to hold their politicians accountable, “V [their] “The minds…there’s really no one else” they trust to lead the country, Hall said.
What this leaves Japan with is a weak Liberal Democratic Party and a divided opposition.
The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable US ally in the increasingly tense Asia-Pacific region. So the uncertainty not only worries its people, but also its neighbors and allies.
At home, the fragile alliance will not help transform the economy, raise wages, and improve welfare for a rapidly aging population.
The task of regaining the trust and respect of a public tired of politics will be more difficult.
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