Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Initial jobless claims and service sector data are available, and the September jobs report is due early Friday.
The stock market rally erased a modest loss to close higher, albeit barely, amid continuing tensions in the Middle East. The Nasdaq found support at the 21-day moving average for the second session in a row.
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Stocks flat despite caution in Middle East; Vertex, Bro, SCCO in focus
Tesla (TSLA) fell on Wednesday after deliveries failed to meet whisper numbers, but TSLA stock rebounded from key support.
Nvidia (NVDA) after testing the support, along with fellow AI chip giants Taiwan Semiconductor Co., Ltd (TSM) and Broadcom (Afgo). Nvidia shares rose slightly overnight as CEO Jensen Huang cited “insane” demand for its next-generation Blackwell AI chips.
Nvidia stock is on IBD Leaderboard and Bahraini dinar 50. Broadcom stock exists IBD Big Cap 20.
Dow jones futures today
Dow Jones futures were 0.2% below fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 3.8%. Crude oil prices rose more than 2%.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department will release unemployment claims for the week ending October 3, with claims rising by 7,000 to 225,000. At 10 a.m., investors will get the ISM Services Index for September, which is set to settle at a positive level. Slightly 51.5. The September jobs report is scheduled to be released on Friday.
Remember, an overnight move in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock market pool
The stock market rally had a fairly quiet session and ended little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% in stock market trading on Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose less than a point. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 0.1%.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 remain just below their all-time highs from last week, with the latter finding support just above the 21-day line and the top of the previous consolidation. The Nasdaq is holding its 21-day line, although it is below the 18,000 level. The small-cap Russell 2000 stock finished just above the 21-day line, not far from the 50-day line.
It’s no coincidence that Nvidia, Tesla and many other stocks find support around their 21-day lines as does the Nasdaq.
US crude oil prices rose 0.4 percent to $70.10 per barrel, far away from their highest levels during the day.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose four basis points to 3.78%.
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ETFs
Among the growth ETFs is the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) advance by 0.15%. iShares Extended Technology Software Fund (ETF)IGV) rose by 0.9%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (Name it) rebounded by 1.4%. Nvidia is the top holding company in SMH, with Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor shares also as major members.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (Ark) fell by 0.7% while the ARK Genomics ETF fell (Arkj) rose fractionally. Tesla stock remains a large holding across Ark Invest ETFs. Cathie Wood has also built a significant stake in Nvidia stock.
Tesla deliveries
Tesla deliveries rose 6% from a year earlier to 462,890 in the third quarter, roughly in line with various estimates. But it was lower than the “whispered” numbers of 465,000 to 470,000 or even higher.
Also, Tesla said it deployed 6.9 gigawatt-hours of energy storage in the third quarter, down sharply from the second quarter’s record of 9.4 gigawatt-hours. It was 70% higher than the previous year.
Tesla declines in deliveries while BYD rises as sales rise
Tesla shares
Tesla stock fell 3.5% to 249.02. Shares fell to a low of 241.50 shortly after the open, but found support just above the 21-day line. TSLA stock has a buy point with a base of 271 COP. But it could be working on a handle that would lower the entry level and allow the moving averages to catch up.
Ideally, Tesla stock will form a tick heading into the robotaxi event on October 10, which will likely have a significant impact on the stock price.
TSLA was down a bit early Thursday.
Nvidia is crazy demanding
Nvidia stock rose 1.6% to 118.85, rebounding from its 50-day moving average and reclaiming its 21-day line. Investors can use the September 26 high of 127.67 as an entry for a trend line, or a buy point. The August 26 high of 131.26 could also serve as a buy point.
NVDA stock rose slightly overnight after CEO Huang told CNBC late Wednesday that “Blackwell is in full production, demand for Blackwell is crazy and on schedule. Everyone wants to be the first to get their hands on it.”
Huang has been optimistic about Blackwell’s production and demand over the past few weeks.
Taiwan Semiconductor shares rose 2.2% to 175.80. TSM stock has reclaimed its 21-day line and a cup-with-handle buy point of 175.45, according to Marketsorg analysis. Chipmaker Nvidia broke out strongly last week, but then fell in the previous three sessions. Taiwan Semi will report third-quarter sales next week and third-quarter earnings the following week.
Broadcom stock rose 1.9% to 170.66, rebounding from a 21-day streak. AVGO stock has a consolidated buy point of 185.16, but is on track to get a handle after Thursday’s trading. This would lower the buy point to 180.25.
When to buy and sell stocks in the bull and bear markets
What are you doing now
Unless you are a very smart trader, there will be little reason to buy stocks this week. Investors may have reduced their exposure, especially if recent buying triggered selling rules, but this has largely been a wait-and-see time.
A good day or two and the major indices and leading stocks will look bullish. Lots of potential handles and pullbacks have been formed. But a bad day can cause real damage to the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, as well as stocks like Nvidia.
With that in mind, make sure you keep an eye on those emerging setups, with your exit strategies in place.
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