“Destiny 2” is on the verge of the biggest scandal in history

I’ve seen a lot of bugs, a lot of player complaints, and a lot of drama in the history of Destiny as a series. But if it works, what’s going on behind the scenes in Destiny 2 in terms of loot drops YearsIt’s probably the biggest scandal the game has ever seen. And I don’t say that lightly.

This is an old problem, players believe that some perks are more likely to drop on weapons than others. Every time this happens, Bungie says, “No, we checked, they’re not.” This happened again with the VS Chill Inhibitor, a heavy grenade launcher from the Vesper’s Host raid. Players said the “God Roll” set of Envious Arsenal, Bait and Switch felt close to impossible to obtain. A few players have done some data analysis that seems to indicate that something is wrong here.

Bungie looked into it, responded, and said that surprise, no, perks are still unlikely. However, there seems to be something else going on.

This idea was first proposed by T1VendettaWho came up with the “proximity” theory of droplets. In short, a claim is the way privilege columns are listed in the API, which can be seen on light.gg, where privileges that are closest together often go down. Like in this figure (via Mossy Max):

In this example, followed by drop analysis, the most common drops will be those with zero or one space between them, the yellow lines, which is a 1 in 24 chance in this specific combo. But then you move to a distance of two, which is instead a 1 in 49 chance, which is rare.

Things get crazy when you get perks that are 3 spaces apart (the list of perks wraps from top to bottom in this analysis). And those totals? They had a 1 in 454 chance of making that list.

The theory sounds crazy on the surface, but it’s illustrated very clearly by a chart like this, where the light gray/white squares that have the most drops have the closest feature distance, and the black squares, which have almost no drops at all , are the three distance privilege pairs. You can also test this yourself if you have a lot of Echoes engrams stored. Use them in Season of Dawn weapons and index perk pairs in those drops, and Compare them here.

I cannot overstate how brutal this is. This is no longer just a conspiracy theory. Yes, it’s “fan analysis” but there are… a lot of smart Destiny fans and many of them with backgrounds in stats running these numbers. As an outside observer who is not personally familiar with these numbers, this interpretation makes sense because it explains many aspects of this matter:

• This explains why even with RNG, where all of these perk combinations should theoretically have an equal chance of pairing, going a certain roll can seem impossible.
• This explains why you feel like you keep getting the same perk pairs over and over again in a way that seems unbearable compared to the ones you are actually seeking. Have you ever had the same pair of perks three times in a row and wondered, “What the hell?” I think every player in the game probably is. This may indicate that he is more than just an RNG idiot.
• This explains why Bungie says that when they look into it, individual perks aren’t weighted. Because they look individual Perks, but not that likely Combo an idea.
• It suggests that Bungie is simply missing this rather than intentionally doing it to make the God hunt more difficult. Yes, the VS Chill Inhibitor roll is one of those extremely rare rolls, but when you do this analysis across all weapons, the idea of ​​distance doesn’t mesh with advantages, meaning a Chill roll can also be extremely rare. Of course yes, sometimes this would be the best roll, but it is not Designed From here. So it doesn’t seem like Bungie is lying, although that would be a claim by many. However, it is terrible.

I’m sold. I’ve seen enough at this point. Not only does the data here make sense, it also explains why Bungie missed it by checking the wrong thing, and even anecdotally how low RNG in the game has felt for years. And again this may be it He owns It’s been going on for years, and we simply don’t know when this might start.

If Bungie looked into this and admitted that this was actually happening, players would be furious. In this case, they would be absolutely right to be so. This meant dozens or even hundreds of hours per player if they were farming one of these borderline impossible rolls because this was screwing up the system that probably weighed every drop in the game. Even if this isn’t some sort of lie or trick from Bungie, it’s still completely inexcusable and it shouldn’t be up to players to catch this.

I can’t wait to see what Bungie has to say about this, and saying “we’ve confirmed this isn’t true” won’t work this time. Not for me, anyway.

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