Russia’s generals are confused about where Ukraine might launch its spring offensive. Attention is currently focused on the Dnipro River.
Kherson – Russian military blogger Rybar reported on Telegram that the Ukrainians had successfully landed and remained on a barge near the Antonov Bridge for several weeks. “Thanks to our lameness, the enemy has established a steady supply route, gathering troops, bringing in supplies and ammunition.”
Russia’s Telegram fighters are angry about the landing of Ukrainian troops on the left, southeast bank of the Dnieper near Kherson. Ukrainian sources also confirm that their own units are operating on the Left Bank. The US Institute for War Research ISW, the most prominent among the Western public, more or less made official the Ukrainian bridge south of the half-destroyed Antonov bridge: the georeferenced footage of the Russian Telegram channel “Zaporoshnij Front” proved that the Ukrainians. It advanced to the northern outskirts of the small town of Oleshki, 3.7 kilometers from the bank of the Dnipro.
The first Western media speculated whether the Ukrainians had secretly launched a large-scale offensive across the river that had been discussed for months. “Russian forces occupied the eastern bank for months,” he writes times“Await the start of the counterattack!”
Ukrainian troops on the Dnipro river: a ‘small beach’?
On the other hand, in Kiev, the news from Dnipro is interpreted with caution. Ukrainian sources BBC confirmed that their own forces were making “some moves across the Dnipro near Cherson”. But MP Sergey Rachmanin tried the opposite Radio NV One downside: the information isn’t new and doesn’t matter much. “It’s an insignificant beach, and it’s very difficult to launch a large-scale offensive from it. But at least there’s a coastline, something to protect or expand.”
Natalya Kumenyuk, a spokeswoman for troops in Ukraine’s southern region, complained that publications about the bridgehead had prompted the enemy to open fire in Kherson and elsewhere on the Right Bank. 30 houses collapsed and civilians were injured. “Military operations require informational silence.”
Russia is said to have weak forces in the Kherson region
Kiev military expert Oleksiy Melnyk told our newspaper that Ukrainian troops have already contested several islands in the Dnipro delta near Cherson. The East Bank is no man’s land. Now only a small number of Ukrainian soldiers are stationed there. “Maybe this is an attempt to build a bridge. If you want to cross the river somewhere else or advance on the bank. Then at least a certain area is occupied, which facilitates the crossing of reinforcements and materials.
But it is too early to say that a bridge to a major thrust is being prepared at a particular point. Less than 60 kilometers from Oleschky to the Black Sea coast as the crow flies. Loud ISW Cherson is the numerically and organizationally weak Russian group in the region. Ukrainian elites may be intent on cutting off their western flank by rapidly pushing south to the sea. However, most military experts believe Kiev has bigger plans and wants to cut Russia’s land bridge from the Donbass to Crimea. Then a major push from the region southeast of Zaporizhia towards the Sea of Azov would be more logical.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive still keeps Russia guessing
Russia’s generals, in particular, are wondering when and where the Ukrainians will finally attack.
Moscow’s counter-offensive in the Donbass has increasingly stalled, with warring factions following each other. The bridge at Cherson could be a diversionary maneuver by the Ukrainians. Or at least a wedge point that wants to stab Russian defense forces in the back between the Dnipro and the Sea of Azov.
Military expert Oleksiy Melnyk says the Ukrainian civil service is doing everything it can to cover up its plans. He quotes the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Ji: “Pretend to attack where you don’t want to. Under no circumstances show where you are actually preparing your attack.” This classic rule holds true.(Dmitry Turnev)
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