Arms supplier and peacemaker? Erdogan’s questionable role in the Ukraine conflict
Selensky receives Guterres and Erdogan for talks in Lviv
Ukrainian President Zelensky welcomes Turkish President Erdogan and UN Secretary General Guterres in Lviv. Selenskyj’s expectations for the meeting should not be particularly high.
Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with Turkish President Erdogan and UN Secretary General Guterres in Lviv on Thursday. Kiev is less interested in a peaceful solution than in another question that is decisive for war.
DHe Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for months presented himself as the Prince of Peace, at least when it comes to Ukraine. After the first Russian invasion in 2014, the autocrat became an advocate for the Crimean Tatars: a Turkic-speaking ethnic group that is a large minority in Turkey.
Although Erdogan does not recognize the annexation of Crimea, he also does not participate in Western sanctions against Russia. Last fall, when Russia deployed troops to the Ukrainian border, he offered to mediate between Moscow and Kiev. At the time, it was overconfidence. At the time, not many people thought about the war – at least abroad.
But at the beginning of the invasion, Erdoğan successfully brought himself as a mediator. Two failed rounds of Russian-Ukrainian talks in March took place in Turkey, in Antalya and Istanbul.
At the end of July Turkey and the UN signed a wheat agreement with Russia and Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported via the Black Sea. So far, 24 ships have been able to leave Ukraine through the “wheat corridor,” allowing the country to resume exports after a five-month forced disruption.
Erdogan now wants to build on this in Lviv, during bilateral talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a tripartite meeting attended by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. After his most recent meeting with Putin in early August, Erdogan said he hoped the crisis could be resolved at the negotiating table.
However, measured by the course of the war, this seems to be a political phrase, since neither Russia nor Ukraine see themselves at a point where they need to negotiate at this time.
Russia hopes to annex the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions to the occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Determined to prevent this, Kiev is preparing an offensive in the south.
International security guarantees are planned
Selenskyj’s expectations for the meeting should not be particularly high. He prefers to talk more about military cooperation with Turkey than diplomatic banter.
Early next year, his government hopes to open its own factory for Bayraktar TB2 drones, and a piece of land has already been purchased, Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Botnar, said in an interview.
Selenskyj, Erdogan and Guterres will still talk about a diplomatic solution. A few days ago, the Office of the President of Ukraine said that a group led by President Office Head Andriy Yermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was working on a document with recommendations for international security guarantees for Ukraine.
The meeting will not bring a breakthrough. But it would be an important step in bringing international attention back to the conflict.
UN According to spokesman Stephane Dujarric, the two leaders met at the UN to investigate the situation surrounding the Russian-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and the killing of prisoners of war at the Russian-controlled Olenivka camp.
Guterres had already called Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about the location of the nuclear plant and the investigation.
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