A civil war in France? A security expert sees real danger

Is France facing civil war? President Emmanuel Macron says nothing less, a week before the first round of parliamentary elections. Both the Rassemblement National (RN) and the leftist party La France insoumise (LFI) could lead to chaos, Macron said on the “Generation Do It Yourself” podcast on Monday. He warned against “political projects of two extremes”.

On the one hand, RN divides society on security issues by referring people to a religion or place of origin. On the other hand, La France insumais propagates a “form of socialism”. Macron said both would lead to “civil war”.

Macron faces criticism from his own camp

The President’s statements drew criticism from both the left and the right. Outgoing RN MP Edwige Diaz criticized the “irresponsible reports”: “Emmanuel Macron is ready to say any nonsense, spread fake news and save what he can from his camp. His comments show how nervous he is and how he is losing his position.”

Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France accused the insoumise Macron of being “always on fire”. Communist Ian Brossaud accused the president of causing chaos in the country for seven years: “I remind you that the yellow coats emerged in the first five years of Emmanuel Macron’s term. Today we are a country in ruins and inequalities have increased. This is the result of Emmanuel Macron’s policies.

And even within his own camp, Macron faces criticism. “It’s unbearable,” a former Macron minister, who asked to remain anonymous, told reporters. “I don’t understand him anymore.” A member leaving the ruling party also complains: “Macron is exaggerating and we are losing our political compass.”

Defense expert: “Everything is possible in France”

It looks completely different Well-known security expert Alain Bauer. “There is indeed a danger of civil war,” he told RMC on Tuesday. A great deal of anger is brewing in France, which has been “exacerbated by the rift between the people and the politicians over the last 30 years”.

In two weeks, a year after unrest following the death of a young man named Nehel, violent clashes are feared again – especially if the RN wins the election. “There has been unrest in France for a thousand years. But now that it’s getting serious, the Tiktok riots are on the rise. They start very quickly and stop quickly. You’re moving forward with loot from riots,” Bauer said. “For a few years I realized that anything is possible in France.”

But Bauer primarily blames Macron for the confusion: “For the first time I see an arsonist, he’s surprised about a fire,” he says of the president. It has already sparked a civil war in New Caledonia.

In response to the Renaissance Party’s defeat in the European elections, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections for the French Chamber of Deputies on June 30 and July 7. In the latest polls, the RN is leading with 35 percent, followed by the left-green electoral alliance New Popular Front with less than 30 percent. The government camp lags behind by about 18 percent.