Brussels or Moscow?: Election in Georgia a referendum – opposition unites for first time

Brussels or Moscow?
Election polls in Georgia – opposition parties united for the first time

October 26, 2024, 7:17 am

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The scale of the decision binds them together: In Georgia, opposition parties have come together to form a united front against a Moscow-friendly government. Surveys show supporters of a return to the EU are ahead. It’s unclear whether the decision will later be ratified — or whether unrest will follow.

Reconciliation with Russia or the European Union: This is the decision Georgians will make in today’s parliamentary elections. According to surveys, a coalition of pro-Western parties has a good chance of replacing the current Georgian Dream ruling party, which is close to Moscow. A week ago, tens of thousands of people demonstrated in the capital Tbilisi for the former Soviet republic’s pro-European curriculum.

“Georgia’s traditionally fragmented resistance forces have managed to form an unprecedented united front against the Georgian Dream,” says Kela Vasatze of the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis. “However, if the ruling party tries to remain in power regardless of the election results, there is a risk of post-election unrest.”

Brussels halts the accession process

After taking over the government in 2012, the Georgian Dream initially pursued a liberal, pro-Western trend. Over the past two years, however, the government has increasingly turned its attention to Moscow, critics say. The party is controlled by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a powerful billionaire and former prime minister who is not officially part of the government.

In May, the government passed a controversial law against “foreign influence”. This is similar to the Russian law against “foreign agents”, which helps suppress dissent. Georgians have taken to the streets en masse against the law enacted by their government, which saw Brussels freeze Georgia’s EU accession process and the United States imposed economic sanctions on Georgian officials for “brutal repression” of protesters.

Earlier this month, another law restricting the rights of the LGBTQ minority caused further tensions between Brussels and Tbilisi. EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell expressed concern about Georgia’s “descent into authoritarianism” and described Saturday’s election as “an important test of Georgia’s democracy and its path to the EU”.

“We’re essentially having a referendum about a choice between Europe or a return to an uncertain Russian past,” pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili said earlier this month. The relatively powerless head of state condemned the government’s “increasingly anti-Western, anti-European” development. Zurabishvili tried in vain to veto LGBTQ legislation and legislation against “foreign influence”.

The ruling party wants to achieve an absolute majority in parliament to ban pro-Western opposition parties through the constitution. Their campaign centers around a conspiracy theory about a “global war party” that allegedly controls Western companies and is trying to draw Georgia into Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Kremlin, for its part, accused the West of “blatant” interference in the neighboring country’s elections.

“We must save the country again”

“On October 26, we will have to save the country again and choose between slavery and freedom, subjugation to foreign powers, war and peace,” Ivanishvili said at a campaign appearance in Batumi on the Black Sea. According to a survey conducted by American opinion polling firm Edison Research, the opposition coalition is leading with 55 percent of the vote, while the ruling party has 33 percent of the vote.

The coalition includes Georgia’s main opposition party, UNM of jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili, and Akhali, a party recently founded by ex-UNM politicians. They have joined with other smaller parties to form a pro-European platform that plans far-reaching reforms in electoral law, the judiciary and criminal prosecution. If they win, the coalition wants to form an interim government to implement reforms and then hold new elections.

“On October 26, Georgians will defend the country’s European destiny and its democracy and get rid of the Georgian dream, which is not Georgian, but pro-Russian,” said UNM President Tina Pokushava. “A government party that threatens to ban opposition parties will fail.”