The US election results are not out yet. Harris and Trump are neck and neck. The electoral system itself could be the deciding factor in the end.
Washington, DC – Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Four weeks before the November 5th US election, this question remains unanswered. Voting in presidential elections is very short.
At first glance, Harris seems to have a slight advantage. However, all available data indicates that the Democratic candidate will receive a majority of the vote nationwide.
A new poll on the US election has Harris three points ahead of Trump nationwide
This is also shown by the results of the most important survey in the United States. The survey was released on October 8 New York Times (NYT) And at Siena College, Harris received 49 percent of the vote and Trump 46 percent. In comparison: mid-September Now And Siena released a poll in which Harris and Trump were tied at 47 percent. It looks like Harris could be on the field just before the US election.
In the average of all national polls for the US election, Harris has a three-point lead over Trump. Statistics and Analysis Page Five thirty eight Currently Harris (as of October 8) calculates a lead of 2.6 percentage points. Other analytics websites see Harris a little further ahead, as the following table shows:
| Race for the White House | 49,3 | 46,1 |
| Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill | 49,8 | 46,5 |
| Win for 270 | 49,3 | 46,5 |
| Silver Bulletin | 49,3 | 46,2 |
US pre-election polls show Harris both advantages and disadvantages over Trump
Census by Now/ Chiana shows another interesting detail. Nine percent of eligible voters who typically vote Republican said they would vote for Harris in the Nov. 5 U.S. election. In his campaign, Harris has relied heavily on moderate Republicans who reject Trump’s second term. He recently campaigned with former Republican MP Liz Cheney, who lost her seat after criticizing Trump.
That’s initially good news for Harris. On the other hand, his rapport with Republicans was less well received by the left in his party. Harris also completely ignores another important group: people of Arab descent in the United States. Although Democrats have held a clear majority here for decades, polls show that there can no longer be any question as a result of the Biden administration’s Israel-Gaza policy. Haris may lose more votes here.
Harris can’t rely on national polls before the US election in a race against Trump
But it could cost Harris the election. Because on closer inspection it turns out that Harris’ numbers aren’t so rosy. This is due to the American electoral system. Because neither the president nor the president is directly elected by the people, a nationwide decision is ultimately irrelevant. The votes of eligible electors determine only the composition of an Electoral College. Whoever gets at least 270 of the 538 electors called the Electoral College will enter the White House.
Because of this peculiarity of the electoral system, the outcome of the US election is decided only in a few states that are very close. What exactly does that mean? More than 150 million people will vote in an American election, but only a small fraction will decide the race. Experts expect close races in seven states:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
The numbers from the last two elections make this particularly clear: In 2020, Joe Biden needed about 43,000 votes from Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona to win — just 0.03 percent of the vote cast nationwide. In 2016, a total of 80,000 votes cast for Donald Trump in the most important vote. Swing States confirmed his presence.
It will be a hot one in the US election campaign
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Polls in swing states ahead of the US election show a close race between Harris and Trump
How do they look now? Polls in swing states outside? Now Harris has taken the lead here as well. Harris’ easiest path to victory is winning the three blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Harris is currently slightly ahead of Trump in all three of these swing states, and he even has a clear lead in Nebraska’s 2nd District. With this the Vice President can reach the required 270 votes in the Electoral College. Harris has also made some progress in Nevada. This means he could get 276 votes in the Electoral College in the US election, assuming no surprising results elsewhere.
Trump’s most efficient path to victory would be to win North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, which would give the Republican Party exactly 270 electoral college votes. The former president could defeat Harris by winning Sun Belt swing states Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and winning Michigan or Wisconsin.
The outcome of the US election depends on who wins 19 Electoral College votes in Pennsylvania. Some polls there recently have Trump back in the lead. (CS)
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