Scientists studying Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, often referred to as the “Doomsday Glacier,” have made a startling discovery. According to a report from CNNResearchers have found that the ice is melting at an increasing rate and may be on an irreversible path toward collapse, which could lead to a catastrophic rise in global sea levels.
Their findings, detailed across a series of studies, offer the clearest understanding yet of this dynamic ice. The outlook is grim, the scientists warned in a report published Thursday, summarizing key findings from their six years of research.
The team found that ice loss from Thwaites is expected to accelerate this century. “The retreat of Thwaites has accelerated dramatically over the past 30 years. Our results suggest that it is about to retreat even more rapidly,” said Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey and a member of the research team.
Scientists predict that Thwaites Glacier and the Antarctic Ice Sheet will collapse within the next 200 years, with potentially catastrophic consequences. Thwaites Glacier alone contains enough ice to raise sea levels by more than two feet, but because it acts as a barrier to the Antarctic Ice Sheet, its collapse could eventually cause sea levels to rise by about 10 feet, threatening coastal cities from Miami and London to Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands.
Scientists have long known that Thwaites, the Florida-sized glacier, is particularly vulnerable because of its geography. The land beneath the glacier slopes downward, exposing more ice to warm ocean water as it melts. But until recently, the exact mechanisms driving its retreat were poorly understood.
“Antarctica remains the biggest unknown in predicting future sea level rise,” scientists from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) said in a statement.
Over the past six years, researchers have conducted a series of experiments to add more clarity. One breakthrough came from Icefin, a torpedo-shaped robot sent to the glacier’s impact point, the point where the ice rises from the seabed and begins to float, a key area of risk. The first images Icefin took as it approached the impact line were emotional for the team, said Kia Riverman, a glaciologist at Portland State University. “For glaciologists, it was like landing on the moon,” she told a news conference. “It was a big moment — we were seeing this critical region for the first time.”
Images taken by the IceFin probe revealed unexpected melting patterns, with warm ocean water flowing through deep cracks and forming “staircase” structures in the ice. Another study using satellite and GPS data showed that tides were pushing seawater more than six miles beneath Thwaites, accelerating the melt by pushing warm water under the ice.
In addition, the researchers examined the glacier’s history. A team led by Julia Willner of the University of Houston analyzed marine sediment cores to reconstruct the glacier’s past, and found that it began to retreat rapidly in the 1940s, likely due to a strong El Niño. “These results give us a broader understanding of how the ice is behaving, and provide more detail than we can see from modern observations,” Willner told CNN.
Amid the disturbing news, there was one positive piece of information. Scientists had feared that the collapse of the Thwaites ice shelf would expose towering ice shelves that could quickly collapse into the ocean, setting off a chain reaction of collapses. But computer models suggest that this process is possible, but less likely than previously thought.
Despite this, the overall outlook remains bleak. Scientists predict that Thwaites and the Antarctic ice sheet could disappear entirely by the 23rd century. Even with immediate action to reduce fossil fuel use, which is not happening at the pace needed, it may already be too late to prevent the glacier from collapsing.
As this phase of the ITGC project comes to an end, researchers stress the need for more study to better understand this complex glacier and whether its retreat can be stopped. “Although we’ve made progress, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about what lies ahead,” said Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the University of California, Irvine. “I’m very concerned that this region of Antarctica is already in the process of collapse.”
“Devoted student. Bacon advocate. Beer scholar. Troublemaker. Falls down a lot. Typical coffee enthusiast.”