Ukraine is advancing on Russian soil. But is Kiev losing troops that cannot be replaced? What scenarios are possible in the war in Ukraine.
- Kursk Offensive Surprises Russia and Vladimir Putin: Even America Was in the Dark
- Kursk Invasion: A Means to Push for Peace Talks with Russia in the Ukraine War?
- Speculation that the Kursk offensive was slowing the Russian advance on Donetsk
- The Kursk offensive has put the US in trouble for controlling the conflict in Ukraine
- This article is available in German for the first time – the journal was originally published on August 14, 2024 Foreign policy.
KURSK – Ukraine’s bold push into Russia’s Kursk region, which began on August 6, stunned leaders in the West and the Kremlin. The cross-border offensive, which met little resistance as Ukrainian troops advanced into Russian territory and captured 28 settlements, has boosted morale in Ukraine, according to the region’s governor. Russian forces have made creeping territorial gains in recent months, but the Kursk operation prompted a strong response from the Kremlin. Ukraine did not inform Joe Biden’s government prior to the move.
But a week after the surprise attack, Kiev remains tight-lipped about the goals of the invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Sunday that Ukrainian troops were fighting in Russia.
On Monday, Zelensky said the Ukrainian government was preparing a humanitarian plan to accompany the move and continued to pressure the West to allow Ukraine to open fire. He also opined that the move was a matter of Ukraine’s security as Russia used the Kursk region to attack Ukraine.
As Ukrainian officials remain silent, analysts have learned as much as they can about the operation by checking open-source images on social media and claims by Russian military bloggers.
Is the Kursk Offensive a Big Chance in Peace Talks Against Putin?
A leading theory – put forward by Russian President Vladimir Putin – is that the invasion was designed to halt Russian advances on key battlegrounds in Ukraine. “Ukraine hopes that this move will at least force the Russian military to counter their offensive and thereby undermine their operations in Donetsk,” said Michael Goffman, senior fellow at the International “Carnegie Foundation” program on Russia and Eurasia. peace
Ukrainian forces met little resistance when they crossed the border last Tuesday, surprising border guards from Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, the FSB.
“They know what they’re doing to detect vulnerability,” said Tara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Russia and International Peace’s Eurasia Program. She noted that different elements of Russian security services are operating in the region, which may have created complex coordination between them and slowed Moscow’s response to an attack. “I still don’t know whether they didn’t find the attackers right away or they found them but the engines didn’t start for whatever reason,” he said.
However, uncertainty about Kiev’s operational intentions in Kursk, one of Ukraine’s most sophisticated military operations so far in the war, has led current and former US officials and experts to fear that Ukraine will choose to side with Russia. You may be counter-attacked. “The offense is bold but dangerous,” Goffman said.
Russia advanced on the Ukrainian front during the Kursk offensive
Ukraine appears to have used some of its most powerful units, such as the 80th and 95th Airborne Brigades, for a week-long push toward Kursk. Russia has so far responded with only small deployments of drone teams, military analysts said. But Ukrainian troops advancing into Russia are far less protected there than in their own country.
Ukraine was already struggling to mobilize its reserves, as the Kremlin’s three-month assault on Kharkiv had already stretched troops in Kiev. And Russia, which has a larger population, is reportedly considering regrouping to send them to the front line. If Ukraine cannot replace the fallen, it could reduce the number of troops it could use for another counteroffensive expected by Western officials by 2025.
Even as Ukraine advanced in the Kursk region, Russia advanced along several axes in eastern Ukraine, namely Volsansk, the suburbs of Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, including Chasiv Yar, Battle Research and Dzerzhynsk.
But according to Andriy Sahorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister, the move has allowed Ukraine to bring important psychological and operational advantages to its armed forces as part of the conflict. “It’s not embarrassing for them [die russischen Streitkräfte]”But you’re following someone else’s playbook,” said Sahorotnyuk, who still serves as an informal adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry but insisted he had no inside knowledge of planning or ongoing operations in Kursk.
The US should provide better support to Ukraine in the Kursk offensive
Beyond the tactical level, ongoing fighting on Russian soil threatens the Biden administration’s efforts to contain the conflict. Former U.S. officials said it put the administration in the awkward position of having to publicly stand up to the Ukrainians’ actions despite internal concerns about the end game.
“The Russians think we were in the middle of planning,” said former US Defense Department official Jim Townsend. Indeed, in a televised meeting with his top security officials on Monday, Putin accused the West of using Ukraine as a proxy for an attack on Russia.
Townsend said the U.S. government “doesn’t necessarily have a big garden party and firecrackers” in response to the invasion, but it should “support the cause and see where it goes.” At the same time, Ukraine asked the US authorities to speed up the delivery of weapons.
Before the US Congress passed a $60 billion aid package to Kiev in April, Ukrainians were being shelled by Russian artillery 20 to 1. Now, as officials wait for more U.S. aid, they are still outnumbered 8 to 1, said Yehor Cherniv, a Ukrainian lawmaker. “It’s still not a party,” he said.
Kursk offensive opens up new vistas for Kiev in Ukrainian war
Analysts see several future scenarios for Ukraine’s operation in Kursk. “Ukraine could take advantage of its information success, as the move has already significantly boosted military morale, and try to push back and pressure Russian forces elsewhere,” Gofman said. They may try to position themselves later in negotiations or to trade the area to disrupt Russian forces.
The Ukrainian leadership may also have expressed different views on the move depending on the Russian response, Zahorodniuk said.
The invasion is the second time in a year that Moscow has challenged its control over parts of the region. In June last year, forces loyal to the head of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin led a short-lived uprising in southern Russia and seized the military headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don. Although the uprising was quickly crushed, it was an embarrassment to the Kremlin, and Prigozhin died under mysterious circumstances in a plane crash two months later.
“When faced with this kind of dilemma, the Kremlin always responds with hyper-correction and repression,” said Massicot, a Carnegie Foundation fellow. “I’m excited to see what they’ll do in this region,” he said, referring to Kursk.
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Amy MacKinnon He is the National Security and Intelligence Correspondent in Foreign policy. Twitter (X): @ak_mack
Jack Tetch Pentagon and National Security Correspondent Foreign policy. Twitter (X): @JackDetsch
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English to German.
This article was originally published in English on August 14, 2024.ForeignPolicy.com” Published – as part of a collaboration, which is now available in translation to readers of IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
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