What Farage’s poll boost means for the election

For the first time, a single opinion poll constitutes an election campaign day.

a Poll from YouGov It has been suggested that reform in the UK has moved beyond the Conservatives for the first time.

It’s worth thinking about that for a moment: one of the most successful political parties in the Western world and the current party of the UK government, outdone by a party only a few years old.

But wait a minute: The polls that make the news are worth questioning, because the most eye-catching polls are usually outliers – and the trend in the polls is what matters.

However, it is this trend, in my opinion, that has made this moment noteworthy, because the UK Reform Party has seen its poll numbers improve throughout this campaign so far.

You can read Professor John Curtis’s analysis of the polls here.

But Nigel Farage has seen false dawns before.

Westminster’s majority voting system means parties need geographically concentrated pockets of support to win seats.

Moderate support in many places could mean hoarding a lot of votes and getting almost no seats.

In 2015, UKIP collected nearly four million votes But he managed to get only one seat.

Farage believes it is possible to get six million votes this time, and perhaps more.

His influence after the elections will depend on four things, in this order:

• Will he win a seat at Westminster?
• How bad are the Conservatives doing?
• How many seats does the Reform Party win in the UK?
• How many votes did they get in total?

In a scenario where the Conservatives do very poorly indeed, and he wins a seat and so do some other reformist candidates, his ability to help shape the future of the right could be very important.

But it is also possible, as a senior Tory pointed out in a text exchange earlier, that this is Farage’s “honeymoon.”

It is also possible that at least some of the many people who tell Conservatives on the doorstep that they don’t know how they will vote may vote Conservative in the end.

At Nigel Farage’s recent press conference, the UK reform leader stood behind a rickety old podium.

The party’s logo was printed on A4 paper which was then glued to it at the appropriate time.

It was a reminder that Nigel Farage’s last gig was an egotistical outfit, short on money and time.

He admits that his team is not as ready as he would like.

He adds that the Liberal Democrats – who have also surged in the polls in the first three weeks of this campaign – have a far more impressive campaign machine than they do.

But there is no shortage of ambition, audacity or appetite to create startling confusion among conservatives.

Farage believes the Conservative Party is world-weary and divided and applauds him.

So that he can scare the life out of at least some of them and leave questions surrounding whether he wants to overtake, seize or eliminate them.

This could be an upcoming TV series, if it makes it to the House of Commons.

But for now, all this means is that many conservatives are moving from gloom to doom, and their smiling tormentor is showing them no mercy this time.