2024 WNBA Finals: Predictions, keys for Liberty vs. Lynx

Then there were two.

The No. 1-seeded New York Liberty and No. 2-seeded Minnesota Lynx will compete for the 2024 championship in the best-of-five WNBA Finals that begin Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) with Game 1 in Brooklyn.

Both teams enter the Finals with contrasting histories. The Liberty, one of the league’s original teams, is still searching for its first title, with last year’s Finals defeat still fresh in their minds.

The Lynx were one of the most storied dynasties in the sport after winning four championships between 2011 and 2017 – the latter of which was also the last time they appeared in a finals series, until this season.

With Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu at the helm, New York was widely expected to return here heading into the second year of its superteam. Minnesota? Not exactly. The Lynx were 19-21 in 2023 and had not been selected as a contender before this season. But a year into her career with MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, Minnesota has proven it belongs on the WNBA’s biggest stage.

Minnesota needed Game 5 to beat the Connecticut Sun in the semifinals, but fittingly, the Lynx and Liberty will face off in the finals. They were the top two teams in the standings, and met in the 2024 Commissioner’s Cup Championship game in late June.

ESPN breaks down what to know about each team and what to expect from the championship series.

(1) New York Liberty vs. (2) Minnesota Lynx

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1, including the Commissioner’s Cup championship game

New York in the playoffs: They swept the Atlanta Dream 2-0 in the first round; They beat the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces 3-1 in the semifinals

Minnesota in the playoffs: Phoenix swept Mercury 2-0 in the first round; Beat the Connecticut Sun 3-2 in the semifinals

How New York got here: After a breakout 2023, the team’s first season after acquiring Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot in free agency, New York retooled its bench to bring in more defense, length, and most importantly sign 24-year-old rookie Leoni Fibic from Germany (who starts Now instead of Vandersloot). With enhanced chemistry between the returnees, the Liberty finished with a league-best record of 32-8, and did not lose consecutive games at any point this year. — Filippo

How Minnesota got here: The Lynx made major changes this offseason, bringing in Courtney Williams and Alana Smith in free agency and trading for Nascha Hedman. Kayla McBride and Bridget Carlton have had strong seasons as well. Collier earned Defensive Player of the Year honors as well as finishing as runner-up for Most Valuable Player. The only tough stretch for Minnesota was before the Olympic break, when Collier was dealing with plantar fasciitis. — Voible

How do they match: There’s a reason these teams occupy the top two spots in the standings: They were the only team to finish in the top four in both offensive and defensive rating this season, with the Lynx slightly outperforming the Liberty defensively but New York having the better numbers offensively. . Both teams rely on sharing the ball and 3-point shooting, but the Liberty also has a tandem of 6-foot-4 Stewart and 6-6 Jones that can do that inside.

There’s a lot of star power: Stewart and Jones are the former top two, and Collier is the runner-up in 2024. Ionescu, McBride and Williams play like three of the best guards in the league. Rotations tend to be shorter in the postseason, but Liberty coach Sandy Brondello and Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve have depth at their disposal, with nine players on each team averaging at least 12 minutes per game during the season. — Filippo

What will most impact the series: How well Liberty can win in the paint with Stewart and Jones may be the key to this series. It won’t be easy; Minnesota became stronger inside with the addition of forward Myisha Heinz-Allen on August 20. Stewart was coming off perhaps her best game of the playoffs with 19 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and four blocks as New York eliminated Las Vegas on Sunday. But fellow UConn grad Collier — who played together for the Huskies in their 2015-16 championship season — was the most impressive player in the playoffs. Tuesday’s game was Collier’s 16th career postseason game in the WNBA and her third with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds. — Voible

New York will win it all if… Ionescu continues to play as the best goalkeeper in the league. The former Oregon Ducks star is hungry to win her first championship after not getting a chance to compete for an NCAA title her final year in college due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After stagnating when play resumed after the Olympics, she became the Liberty’s leading scorer in the postseason, averaging 20.7 PPG on 48.9% shooting (46.5% on three-pointers) as well as 5.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. — Filippo

Minnesota will win it all if… Collier is asserting herself as much as she has done so far in the postseason, and if Minnesota’s three-point shooting is on point. The Lynx led the WNBA in assists during the regular season. They move the ball very well and spread even the best defenses around. They shot a career-best 38% from beyond the arc in the regular season and don’t lack confidence facing Liberty. Nor should they, given their success against New York this season. — Phobile

Which team will win the title and why:

Filippo: Freedom in 5. New York will win because it has the hunger, focus and experience gained from last year’s Finals defeat — plus home-court advantage — to finally get the job done.

Voepel: Lynx at 5. Minnesota is the No. 2 seed, but has been the better team in previous matchups with New York. The Lynx have played very consistently and cohesively all season, and they can add a league title to their Commissioner’s Cup championship starting in June.